After months of campaign ads and political rhetoric, the midterm election cycle reaches its conclusion Tuesday, with major contests in Illinois and across the nation.
In Illinois, voters will decide the governor’s race, several congressional contests and the state’s next U.S. senator.
Nationally, competitive races could determine which party controls the balance of power in Congress.
The Illinois governor’s contest is a rematch of the race held four years ago. Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is again facing Republican Darren Bailey.
“So, the one thing that’s different is, the White House and Congress is controlled by Republicans this time around,” said Tabitha Bonilla, associate professor of political science at Northwestern University. “We’ve seen Bailey really moderate his language, especially with respect to Chicago. So, last time, you know, he called Chicago a ‘hellhole.’ He’s apologized for that statement. He’s talked about finding a place to stay here. And he’s really tried to also moderate his messaging. He’s not anti-establishment in the same way that he was. He can’t be as a Republican. And so he’s also really running on an affordability message that might be cognizant of what we hear from Democrats around the country.”
Pritzker is seeking a third term as Illinois governor, while speculation continues over whether he may run for president in 2028.
Connie Mixon, a political science professor at Elmhurst University, said a reelection victory would not necessarily prompt Pritzker to announce his future plans immediately.
“I think he’ll hold off a little bit. He’ll sort of enter into a quiet phase of a presidential election. Staffing up, doing some travel, making sure that he’s got enough money. Very quietly. And I would suspect that sometime in early 2027 that there’ll be an official announcement, if he is going to run,” Mixon said. She added that she expects Pritzker to seek the presidency.
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Across the country, both parties are competing for control of Congress. Republicans currently hold majorities in the U.S. House and Senate.
Democrats are hoping to take control of both chambers. Mixon said several Senate contests could prove especially important.
“I think that Democrats have an exceptional advantage in the House. So I think that the House is pretty much gone. Republicans have pulled money out of House races and put it into Senate races. So, I think, the real surprises are going to come in the Senate,” Mixon said.
Mixon said she is closely watching roughly seven Senate seats. Among them are contests in Texas, Iowa and Kansas—states she said would not have appeared competitive to her a year ago.
If Democrats win in both Iowa and Kansas, Mixon said the country could be headed for a “blue wave.”
A Democratic takeover of Congress would shape the final two years of the Trump presidency.
“It’s a tricky one because Trump can veto whatever legislation they put forward. But the other concerns that Democrats might have is that if legislation gets signed, then Trump gets to take credit for whatever wins they have. So, I think Democrats are in a hard spot. They’ve promised us a better economy if they win. And so, they definitely need to push for that. But they might not be able to fulfill that promise,” Mixon said.
