WASHINGTON — After months of uncertainty, Tuesday’s election will begin to show which party is poised to control Congress for the next two years.
Still, the final answer may not come on Election Night. Depending on the margins in the most competitive House and Senate contests, control of Congress could be decided anytime from late Tuesday evening to more than a week after the polls close.
Several forecasters expect a strong Democratic performance in House races, raising the possibility that the Senate majority could be projected by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Senate control has generally been settled quickly in recent election cycles. This year, however, several contests remain true toss-ups — including the Alaska race, where potential legal challenges could delay the outcome.
The Post offers a state-by-state guide to poll-closing times, key races and the developments that could shape the night:
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6 p.m. ET: First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky
One of the first major clues could come from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. The Lexington-area district lies entirely in the Eastern time zone, making it one of the earliest places in the country to report closing polls.
President Trump won the district by 15 percentage points in 2024, but the contest has tightened considerably. Fox News’ Power Rankings recently shifted the race from Lean Republican to toss-up. Republican Alvarado is facing Democrat Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor, for the open seat.
A Democratic upset this early would immediately raise concerns for House Republicans.
The seat became open after Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican, launched a Senate campaign against Democrat Charles Booker. Barr is favored to defeat Booker in the Senate contest, which follows the retirement of longtime Sen. Mitch McConnell.
7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia
Georgia features two closely watched statewide contests. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, was once viewed as one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents, but he held a 48% to 40% advantage over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Oct. 21.
The gubernatorial race is considerably closer. Georgia Republicans have shown a willingness to reject Trump-backed candidates, most notably when Gov. Brian Kemp defeated Trump’s preferred candidate, David Perdue, by a wide margin in 2022. The pattern continued in June, when billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson beat Trump’s choice, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, in a runoff.
Jackson now faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, in a contest rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. If Bottoms wins, she would become the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since Roy Barnes in 1998.
South Carolina is also delivering an unusually competitive Senate race. Sen. Darline Graham, a Republican, was appointed to the chamber in July after the unexpected death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. She later agreed to run for a full term at Trump’s urging. A New York Times/Siena poll found her tied with Democrat Annie Andrews at 48%, prompting Fox News to move the contest from Lean Republican to toss-up.
Virginia could provide an early measure of the House battle. The state Supreme Court rejected a Democratic redistricting proposal in May — a map that likely would have given Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats — leaving the existing districts in place. Republicans Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman are nevertheless defending districts carried by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger in her 2025 landslide.
In Vermont, Republican Gov. Phil Scott is seeking a sixth two-year term in a race that has become unexpectedly competitive. Scott won his previous election by 52 points in one of the nation’s most Democratic states, but his personal approval rating has weakened. Vermont Public reported that his approval has fallen 15 percentage points since 2022. He faces Democrat Amanda Janoo, an economist.
7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
Ohio is once again showing signs of becoming a competitive political battleground.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 52% to 47% in a Fox News poll. The network subsequently moved the race from toss-up to Lean Democrat. The special election will determine who completes Vice President JD Vance’s Senate term.
The governor’s contest could prove to be one of the Republican Party’s biggest disappointments of the election cycle.
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy trails Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director who oversaw Ohio’s COVID-19 response, by 4.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. Ramaswamy’s most controversial campaign move was a $4 million advertisement featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, who accused her daughter of lying. Arthur lost custody after her husband was indicted for raping Acton when she was 12, and Acton has accused her mother of abuse and neglect. Several prominent Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine but not Trump, denounced the ad.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper led former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley 52% to 39% in the final Elon University poll. They are competing for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, DC
Most Florida polls close at 7 p.m., and the state is known for counting ballots quickly. That means two redrawn House districts could provide some of the evening’s earliest clues. Rep. Kathy Castor’s Tampa-area 14th District shifted from a district won by Harris by eight points to one carried by Trump by 11 points after redistricting, according to Axios. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat, is defending the 25th District. Republican strategists believe that if Castor survives, the party’s chances of taking the House will be significantly reduced, Axios reported.
The statewide Florida contests appear more favorable to Republicans. Sen. Ashley Moody held a 50% to 44% lead over Democrat Angie Nixon in a New York Times/Siena poll. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds also led Democrat David Jolly by a similar margin in the race to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Pennsylvania could ultimately decide which party controls the House. Four Republican incumbents — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry — are facing competitive reelection bids. Perry is again running against former television anchor Janelle Stelson in one of the country’s most expensive House races. In the governor’s race, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to win comfortably; a recent Quinnipiac poll gave him a 59% to 34% lead over Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican Senate incumbent running this cycle in a state largely won by Kamala Harris. Collins, who is seeking a sixth term, faces former state Senate President Troy Jackson. Jackson became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner withdrew amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies. A YouGov poll released Sunday showed Jackson ahead 52% to 47%. Maine’s ranked-choice voting system means the result may not be called on Tuesday night.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas led former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu 48% to 41% in a University of Massachusetts Lowell poll. They are competing to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
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Mississippi Republicans appear sufficiently concerned that Trump traveled to Corinth on Oct. 26 to campaign for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. A poll conducted by a left-leaning firm showed Hyde-Smith holding a narrow 43% to 40% lead over Democrat Scott Colom. No Democrat has won a Mississippi Senate race since 1982.
8:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arkansas
Arkansas stands alone in the 8:30 p.m. time slot, with Republicans holding a clear advantage in the state.
9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming
The 9 p.m. hour could be the most consequential stretch of the night for determining Senate control. While most polling places in Texas, Michigan and Kansas close at 8 p.m., the final precincts in those states remain open until 9 p.m.
In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a May runoff after Trump delayed endorsing him. Paxton is now locked at 49% with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a Fox News poll. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate race since 1988. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, held only a 50% to 47% lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in a Texas Southern University poll.
Michigan’s Senate race took an unexpected turn Sunday when Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, crossed party lines to endorse former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the move a “despicable betrayal,” while El-Sayed’s campaign reported raising $2.4 million that day. Before Stevens’ endorsement, El-Sayed led Rogers 51% to 45% in a Detroit News/WDIV poll released last week.
In the Michigan governor’s race, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson held a six-point lead over Republican Rep. John James in a Marist poll.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, but Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is facing a serious challenge from the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor who held an advantage in the final Emerson College survey.
Iowa’s Senate contest has seesawed throughout the fall. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek have repeatedly traded the lead in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. In the governor’s contest, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn in every October poll.
In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn and Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts were tied at 49% in a YouGov poll. No Democrat is running for the Senate seat. In the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, which became open after Republican Rep. Don Bacon retired, Democrats hold an advantage.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, led Republican former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya 54% to 40% in a New York Times/Siena poll.
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, led Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters in the latest Marquette Law School poll. The winner will succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, maintained a polling lead over Republican Rep. Andy Biggs throughout the fall.
In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul led Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% in Siena’s final poll. Hudson Valley Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is also locked in a close reelection battle with Democrat Cait Conley in the 17th Congressional District.
10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah
Montana’s 1st Congressional District features a competitive race between Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag.
Republicans are also favored in the state’s three-way Senate contest. In an unusual twist, Democratic operatives sought to undermine their own nominee, Alani Bankhead, believing independent candidate Seth Bodnar had a better chance of winning. Bankhead refused to leave the race.
In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is facing a difficult reelection campaign against state Attorney General Aaron Ford.
11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington
If the House contest is closer than expected, California could determine which party controls the chamber. The state, however, has a reputation for taking a long time to count its ballots.
That slow pace was on display during the 2022 midterms. The expected Republican wave turned out to be far narrower than anticipated, and it took nearly eight days to determine which party would control the House.
Oregon is also drawing attention for a competitive gubernatorial contest between unpopular Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan, who mounted a strong challenge against Kotek in 2022.
12 a.m. ET: Polls close in Hawaii
Hawaii’s midterm contests have received little national attention, but polls in the youngest state in the nation close at approximately midnight Eastern time.
1 a.m. ET: Polls close in Alaska
Alaska traditionally becomes the final state to close its polls, coming four hours behind the East Coast. This year, the Last Frontier is home to one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races, pitting Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.
The contest has been complicated by a bombshell report alleging that Peltola’s allies recruited Dan J. Sullivan, nicknamed “Decoy Dan,” to enter the race in an effort to confuse voters.
“Decoy Dan” has triggered litigation from the Trump administration. On Sunday, however, a judge rejected an effort to prevent election certification if Sen. Sullivan fails to win.
Legal challenges are not the only potential source of delay. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, meaning the winner may not be known for some time if the final results are as close as recent polls indicate.
Alaska’s Division of Elections told reporters ahead of Election Day that the first results could begin arriving around 12:45 a.m. ET, according to Scripps News.
