Aaron Judge’s fractured right rib has cast uncertainty over the Yankees’ championship outlook, with no clear date set for his return. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK – The Yankees own one of the American League’s strongest records, but their postseason ceiling may ultimately depend on one question: when Aaron Judge can get back on the field.
The star slugger has been sidelined since May 31 because of a stress fracture in his first right rib. While recent updates have offered some encouragement, Judge remains far from a return, and the team has not provided anything resembling a recovery timeline.
Speaking with reporters Friday at Yankee Stadium, Judge said he still believes he will play again before the season is over.
“I don’t see why I wouldn’t,” Judge said, adding that imaging performed during the All-Star break showed “a positive sign because it’s showing some healing.”
Still, Yankees manager Aaron Boone pushed back on the idea that the club is ready to map out Judge’s next steps. Boone addressed the situation during his pregame media session before New York opened a pivotal midsummer series against the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers.
For now, neither Boone nor Judge has firm answers, and doctors are not offering predictions. The Yankees and their captain are waiting for Texas orthopedic surgeon Dr. Gregory Pearl to issue a definitive assessment before Judge is cleared to resume upper-body strengthening, a necessary step before any baseball activities can begin.
We are all waiting with bated breath.
“It would be like us playing without Shohei Ohtani,” Mookie Betts said after the Dodgers won the first game of the series, 2-1, on an eighth-inning play in which Betts took a relay throw, twirled off-balance and threw out Trent Grisham at the plate.
Yanks Are Below .500 Playing Without Injured Judge
The Yankees have been floundering in the 38 games since Judge last played. They are 18-20. A ship without a rudder.
Barring a complete collapse, they will make the playoffs in a very weak AL, whether at the top of the East or in a Wild Card berth as again the host team. But unless Judge returns by then, success in the postseason might be limited without their star and highest-paid player in the fourth year of a nine-year contract. He earns $40 million a year.
Commissioner Rob Manfred noted in a press conference with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday prior to the All-Star Game in Philadelphia that lower payroll teams can make it to the playoffs, but their ability to win it all is guided by how much they spend.
“I think our view of the world is that over a very long period of time there’s a very strong relationship between who gets into the playoffs and who proceeds,” Manfred said. “Notwithstanding the exceptions, but from our perspective what is the aggregate data over time?”
To Manfred’s point, the pertinent data is right there for everyone to see: Like last year when the $417.3 million payroll Dodgers swept the $143.6 million payroll Brewers in the National League Championship Series.
It’s Hard to Compete Against the Big Market Teams
The Brewers posted the best record in the Majors last season (97-65) and then defeated the Cubs in a five-game NL Division Series, before the Dodgers and Ohtani crushed them in the NLCS.
Now at 60-37, the Brewers have the second-best record in the Majors behind the Dodgers at 62-36, with a similar payroll disparity as last year: $420.4 million for the Dodgers and $144.8 million for the Brewers.
Similarly, in the AL East, the first-place Rays are spending $109 million, while the second-place Yankees are third in spending behind the Dodgers and Mets at $336.7 million. The Rays lead the Yanks by 2 1/2 games.
The Brewers and Rays have never won the World Series. The Yankees have done it 27 times, but not since 2009. The Dodgers have taken the last two for a total of nine overall, eight in Los Angeles and one in Brooklyn.
Manfred believes a salary cap will generate competitive balance. The players’ union adamantly disagrees.
“There’s no question that everybody in every sport is not going to win once every 30 or 32 years, depending on how many teams you have,” he said. “But data in our sport is stark. Your opportunity to make the playoffs, if you are a larger market team, is dramatically higher.
“And your opportunity to proceed to subsequent rounds, that advantage grows with each round. I do think a big piece of this issue is perception, and that’s why I use the word hope, which starts with the beginning of each year.”
No one is going to cry for the Yankees, but their chances of proceeding again to the World Series are not tied as much to their payroll as they are to Judge’s fate. Without him, they are not nearly as good as the team that lost to the Dodgers in the five-game 2024 World Series. But the Dodgers, with their core of Ohtani, Betts and Freddie Freeman intact, have been through the battles of the past two victorious postseasons and are heading toward the first MLB three-peat since the 1998 to 2000 Yankees.
“We’re better,” said young Dodger catcher Dalton Rushing, who was not even on the 2024 team.
And they might very well be. Minus Judge, winning the 2026 World Series will be tough for the Yankees to accomplish.
“That’s why I get paid to play big games for the Yankees,” Judge said. “With how special this group is, I want to be a part of everything. We have a lot of great guys in this clubhouse who have been holding their own and carrying the weight of the team. It’s been fun to watch, but very frustrating and tough sitting on the sidelines.”
