DUBAI – According to congressional records and insights from an arms control organization, Saudi Arabia might establish uranium enrichment within its borders as part of a potential nuclear agreement with the United States. This development raises concerns about nuclear proliferation amidst ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S.
Both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have sought to forge a nuclear accord with Saudi Arabia that involves the transfer of American nuclear technology. However, experts in nonproliferation caution that allowing Saudi Arabia to operate centrifuges might pave the way for the kingdom to initiate a weapons program, especially as its determined crown prince has indicated a willingness to pursue nuclear armament should Iran succeed in developing a nuclear weapon.
Saudi Arabia has deepened its defense ties with nuclear-capable Pakistan, signing a mutual defense agreement last year after Israel conducted a strike in Qatar against Hamas leaders. In response, Pakistan’s defense minister declared that their nuclear arsenal would be at Saudi Arabia’s disposal if required, a move perceived as a deterrent against Israel, reputedly the only nuclear-armed nation in the region.
Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington, wrote, “While nuclear collaboration can promote nonproliferation standards and enhance transparency, the specifics are crucial.”
The documents express concerns that the Trump administration may not have fully evaluated the proliferation risks associated with its proposed nuclear collaboration with Saudi Arabia or considered the potential precedents it could establish.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia did not provide a response to inquiries from The Associated Press.
Congressional report outlines possible deal
The congressional document, also seen by the AP, shows the Trump administration aims to reach 20 nuclear business deals with nations around the world, including Saudi Arabia. The deal with Saudi Arabia could be worth billions of dollars, it adds.
The document contends that reaching a deal with the kingdom “will advance the national security interests of the United States, breaking with the failed policies of inaction and indecision that our competitors have capitalized on to disadvantage American industry and diminish the United States standing globally in this critical sector.” China, France, Russia and South Korea are among the leading nations that sell nuclear power plant technology abroad.
The draft deal would see America and Saudi Arabia enter safeguard deals with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. That would include oversight of the “most proliferation-sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation,” it added. It listed enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing as potential areas.
The IAEA, based in Vienna, did not immediately respond to questions. Saudi Arabia is a member state to the IAEA, which promotes peaceful nuclear work but also inspects nations to ensure they don’t have clandestine atomic weapons programs.
“This suggests that once the bilateral safeguards agreement is in place, it will open the door for Saudi Arabia to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities — possibly even from the United States,” Davenport wrote. “Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment.”
Enrichment isn’t an automatic path to a nuclear weapon — a nation also must master other steps including the use of synchronized high explosives, for instance. But it does open the door to weaponization, which has fueled the concerns of the West over Iran’s program.
The United Arab Emirates, a neighbor to Saudi Arabia, signed what is referred to as a “123 agreement” with the U.S. to build its Barakah nuclear power plant with South Korean assistance. But the UAE did so without seeking enrichment, something nonproliferation experts have held up as the “gold standard” for nations wanting atomic power.
Saudi-US proposal comes amid Iran tensions
The push for a Saudi-U.S. deal comes as Trump threatens military action against Iran if it doesn’t reach a deal over its nuclear program. The Trump military push follows nationwide protests in Iran that saw its theocratic government launch a bloody crackdown on dissent that killed thousands and saw tens of thousands more reportedly detained.
In Iran’s case, it long has insisted its nuclear enrichment program is peaceful. However, the West and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003. Tehran also had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% — making it the only country in the world to do so without a weapons program.
Iranian diplomats long have pointed to 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comments as a binding fatwa, or religious edict, that Iran won’t build an atomic bomb. However, Iranian officials increasingly have made the threat they could seek the bomb as tensions have risen with the U.S.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler, has said if Iran obtains the bomb, “we will have to get one.”
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