KERRVILLE, Texas – On the eve of the Fourth of July holiday, Christopher Flowers checked the forecast while at a friend’s place near the Guadalupe River. There was nothing to suggest trouble.
Just a few hours later, chaos ensued: Flowers awoke to darkness filled with popping electrical sockets and rising water levels reaching his ankles. In a hurry, he and his family managed to move nine people into the attic. Although phones were buzzing with alerts, Flowers remembered on Saturday that he couldn’t pinpoint exactly when during the turmoil they began.
“What they need they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now,” Flowers, 44, said.
The fierce floods that swept through pre-sunrise Friday in Texas Hill Country resulted in at least 43 fatalities in Kerr County, as reported by officials on Saturday, with many still missing. Among those unaccounted for were 27 girls from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp near the river in Kerr County where most victims were located.
But as authorities launch one of the largest search-and-rescue efforts in recent Texas history, they have come under intensifying scrutiny over preparations and why residents and youth summer camps that are dotted along the river were not alerted sooner or told to evacuate.
The National Weather Service sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare alert notifying of imminent danger.
Local officials have insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming and have defended their actions.
“There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing, a lot of second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking,” said Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, whose district includes Kerr County. “There’s a lot of people saying ‘why’ and ‘how,’ and I understand that.”
When the warnings began
An initial flood watch — which generally urges residents to be weather aware — was issued by the local National Weather Service office at 1:18 p.m. local time on Thursday.
It predicted rain amounts of between 5 to 7 inches (12.7 to 17.8 centimeters). Weather messaging from the office, including automated alerts delivered to mobile phones to people in threatened areas, grew increasingly ominous in the early morning hours of Friday, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas, said Jason Runyen, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office.
At 4:03 a.m., the office issued an urgent warning that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life.
Jonathan Porter, the chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting company that uses National Weather Service data, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Porter said in a statement.
Local officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour that was the equivalent of months’ worth of rain for the area.
“We know we get rains. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was jogging along the river early in the morning and didn’t notice any problems at 4 a.m. A little over an hour later, at 5:20 a.m., the water level had risen dramatically, and “we almost weren’t able to get out of the park,” he said.
Rice also noted that the public can become desensitized to too many weather warnings.
Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because of the expense.
“We’ve looked into it before … The public reeled at the cost,” Kelly said.
Hundreds of rescues
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Saturday that the massive response to the flooding had resulted in the rescue and recovery of more than 850 people, including some found clinging to trees.
Scores of people in and along the river were airlifted to safety by helicopter, including girls at Camp Mystic.
Kelly said he didn’t know what kind of safety and evacuation plans the camps may have had.
“What I do know is the flood hit the camp first, and it came in the middle of the night. I don’t know where the kids were,” he said. “I don’t know what kind of alarm systems they had. That will come out in time.”
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said Saturday it was difficult for forecasters to predict just how much rain would fall. She said the Trump administration would make it a priority to upgrade National Weather Service technology used to deliver warnings.
“We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said during a press conference with state and federal leaders.
Weather service had extra staffers
The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, which delivers forecasts for Austin, San Antonio and the surrounding areas, had extra staff on duty during the storms, Runyen said.
Where the office would typically have two forecasters on duty during clear weather, they had up to five on staff.
“There were extra people in here that night, and that’s typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event and bring people in on overtime and hold people over,” Runyen said.
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Murphy reported from Oklahoma City.
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