With less than a year remaining before the Rugby World Cup, Scotland are entering the final phase of Gregor Townsend’s decade-long reign as head coach.
Townsend’s contract runs until the end of next year’s tournament in Australia, but the expectation is that he will leave the national team after ten years in charge.
Considering his consultancy position with Newcastle Red Bulls, it would not take the predictive powers of Nostradamus to work out where Townsend could be heading next.
While Townsend’s likely next move has become something of an open secret, the question of who will replace him has also begun to feel increasingly predictable.
Franco Smith has emerged as the leading candidate after building an impressive record with Glasgow Warriors over the past four years.
Scottish Rugby performance director David Nucifora will oversee the search for Townsend’s successor before leaving his own position at the end of the current cycle.
New Zealand attack coach Mike Blair chats to journalists on his return to Scotland this week
There is a compelling case for Scotland to look no further than Scotstoun. Smith has more than earned an opportunity with the national side. However, several other names continue to feature prominently in the conversation.
Scott Robertson, the former All Blacks head coach, remains highly regarded by figures at Murrayfield and has Scottish connections dating back to a brief spell with Ayr.
Clark Laidlaw was also mentioned this week. The Hurricanes head coach, who guided them to a Super Rugby title and is the son of Scotland great Roy Laidlaw, told the BBC he would be open to discussing the role.
Saturday’s meeting with New Zealand at Murrayfield also brings another potential contender into focus: Mike Blair.
Since leaving Edinburgh in 2023, Blair has become an important member of Dave Rennie’s coaching team. He initially worked with Rennie at Kobe Steelers in Japan before joining the All Blacks as attack coach.
Blair previously worked under Townsend as Scotland’s skills coach from 2017 to 2021, departing to take charge of Edinburgh.
His debut season brought encouraging results, with Edinburgh reaching the URC quarter-finals, finishing above Glasgow in the regular-season standings and producing some highly entertaining attacking rugby.
Blair represented Scotland 85 times, a record for a scrum half
The following campaign proved considerably tougher. Blair eventually resigned, citing burnout caused by the wider responsibilities of managing contracts and recruitment, rather than the coaching itself.
Jim Hamilton, the former Scotland lock and one-time team-mate of Blair, believes that experience should not diminish his standing as one of rugby’s most intelligent coaching minds.
Hamilton regards Blair as one of the smartest players he ever shared a dressing room with and believes his coaching credentials make him a serious candidate for the Scotland job.
“When Gregor Townsend eventually moves on from Scotland, I hope Mike’s name is part of that discussion,” Hamilton said.
“Whether he wants to be a head coach again is something you would have to ask him. Personally, I think he probably does, but perhaps not in the same environment he had at Edinburgh, where so much of his time was taken up by issues away from coaching.
“Scotland will begin a new cycle after the World Cup. I don’t know whether Mike would want to return as head coach or attack coach, but I would love to see him involved with Scotland again because he has so much to offer.
“Franco Smith will obviously be a major part of the conversation, while Scott Robertson could also come into consideration because of his Scottish links. But I would genuinely like to see Mike Blair return to the Scotland setup in some capacity.
“His biggest strength and greatest enthusiasm lie in coaching and helping players improve on the training ground. When you hear the All Blacks speak and see how their attack has developed since Mike and Dave Rennie arrived, the evidence is there.
Former Glasgow Warriors head coach Dave Rennie will lead the All Blacks at Murrayfield
“Mike gives those players the platform to become the best versions of themselves while delivering the style of rugby people have always associated with New Zealand.
“As a player, he was not necessarily the most naturally gifted athlete, but his understanding of rugby was exceptional.
“He played with enormous passion and was completely genuine. As captain, we trusted him absolutely.
“That was during a period when Scotland struggled more often than not, unlike the progress the current side has made in recent years. Even so, he was an outstanding captain and leader.
“Those qualities have clearly carried into his coaching. Dave Rennie obviously holds him in extremely high regard, and that is significant praise.”
Rennie, the former Glasgow Warriors head coach, was named New Zealand’s new head coach in March earlier this year. Since then, he has guided the All Blacks to ten victories in 13 matches, with all three losses coming against South Africa.
New Zealand have begun to find their rhythm, producing the attacking, free-flowing rugby that has long been associated with both the All Blacks and Rennie.
Jim Hamilton believes his former team-mate and captain Blair would be perfect fit for Scotland
Their Murrayfield encounter promises to be a fascinating Test, with Hamilton suggesting Scotland may currently possess the strongest squad of Townsend’s tenure.
“I really like the way New Zealand are playing at the moment,” said the 43-year-old, who earned 63 Scotland caps between 2006 and 2015. “Mike is someone I know well and I have spoken with him.
“Since Mike and Dave Rennie joined the All Blacks, it feels as though they have restored a clear identity to the team.
“The All Blacks remain one of the most recognisable and admired teams in world sport. Dave Rennie has connected strongly with that identity since taking charge.
“The rugby they have played in recent months has been outstanding and much closer to the vintage New Zealand performances people expect.
“It feels as if the All Blacks are once again a major force. There is no doubt they will be among the leading contenders at next year’s World Cup.
Former Edinburgh head coach Blair has worked alongside Rennie in Japan and New Zealand
“Scotland are also in a very positive position. There is quality, depth and balance throughout the squad.
“Bath may have had a difficult start to the season, but once Finn Russell puts on a Scotland shirt, he will once again look like one of the best players in the world.”
The conversation inevitably turned to the Haka, New Zealand’s traditional pre-match performance that continues to divide opinion among players, supporters and pundits.
Former England prop Joe Marler caused controversy a couple of years ago by describing the Haka as “ridiculous” and arguing that it should be scrapped, although he later apologised for the comments.
Hamilton, reflecting on his own experiences facing the ritual, said: “I think the Haka is one of the great spectacles in sport. I certainly cannot offer you a headline like Joe Marler did!”
Scotland face up to the Haka in 2022 and Hamilton admits he relished taking on the All Blacks
“It carries real meaning for the New Zealand players, with tradition and respect at its heart. It is also theatrical, building the atmosphere inside the stadium before kick-off.
“I faced it several times as a player and there was always discussion about how we should respond. I simply wanted to look directly at the player I expected to face during the match.
“On one occasion that player was Ali Williams, the former New Zealand lock. He has this enormous tongue, his eyes were bulging and he was staring straight at me. I remember thinking: ‘Come on!’ I was completely fired up.
“I was standing beside John Barclay, who was staring at Richie McCaw. Afterwards, John turned to me and said: ‘Jim, we’re f*****!’ New Zealand had brought out McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Julian Savea, Kieran Read and so many others. It was an incredible team.
“We were nowhere near them on the day. But as a player and an athlete, facing that particular New Zealand side was still an unforgettable experience.”
■ Jim Hamilton joined BOYLE Sports to preview the Nations Championship. When your Rugby Union team takes a 17-point lead, BOYLE Sports pays out! 18+ BeGambleAware. For more information visit: www.boylesports.com
