Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative revival has propelled the party back into its traditional role as the main opposition in British politics.
Polling suggests voters now view the Conservatives as the strongest challengers to Andy Burnham and Labour, after the party sharply narrowed Reform UK’s sizeable lead over the past five months.
One pollster said on Friday night that the “tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics”.
An Ipsos poll found that, after Mrs Badenoch’s high-energy party conference performance, the Conservatives had overturned Reform UK’s 28-point advantage from May. The Tories now lead Nigel Farage’s party by three points—35 per cent to 32 per cent—for the first time during this Parliament.
Policies including the abolition of inheritance tax on the family home, plans for 50,000 additional prison places and efforts to move more young people into work while reducing the benefits bill have energised Conservative supporters.
The polling indicates that the message is also reaching beyond the Tory base. In May, voters who supported Labour at the 2024 general election viewed Reform as 24 points ahead of the Conservatives as the official opposition. They now place the Tories 13 points in front.
The Conservative improvement coincides with a difficult period for Reform, which is facing police investigations into donations alongside fresh controversies involving allegations of racism and sexism.
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos director of politics, told Our News Outlet: “Over time, we are consistently seeing more people say that it is clear what Kemi stands for, while her ratings continue to improve. At the same time, Reform is clearly struggling.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative revival has returned the party to the position of main opposition in British politics. Pictured: Mrs Badenoch visiting The Malcolm Group in Paisley on Friday.
“There is now a contest for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics—an area Reform appeared to have secured by May.”
“Since the local elections, Reform has faced scandal after scandal, while Kemi has presented herself as a steady pair of hands and voters have gained a clearer sense of what she represents.”
“It is sensible to remain cautious—where will the parties stand in November or December? But it is clear that the tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics.”
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, said the result could prove seismic for the party’s prospects. He added: “In a multi-party nation where parties are competing to finish first or second, it matters greatly if voters see you as the Government’s main opposition.
“The Conservatives need to wait another four to six weeks to establish whether their post-conference surge is lasting or is simply a temporary bounce.”
He said Reform had been weakened by a decline in immigration as the most prominent issue and by falling support for Mr Farage, particularly among middle-class voters. At the same time, Mrs Badenoch had gained ground personally while creating greater distance between the current Conservative Party and the previous government.
The Ipsos survey also shows a growing number of voters believe Mrs Badenoch could become prime minister. That figure has risen from 24 per cent at the same point last year to 32 per cent.
By contrast, the proportion who think Mr Farage is likely to enter No 10 has dropped from 50 per cent in May to 33 per cent.
In May, Labour voters from the 2024 general election viewed Reform as 24 points ahead of the Conservatives as the official opposition. They now give the Tories a 13-point lead. Pictured: Labour PM Andy Burnham delivering a speech in Motherwell on Friday.
The survey provides another boost for the Conservatives after three separate polls this week placed them ahead of Mr Farage’s party and in second place. Reform voters also said they approved of Mrs Badenoch’s handling of a row, prompted by Suella Braverman, over whether only white people can be considered truly English.
In her keynote speech at the party conference in Birmingham, Mrs Badenoch memorably likened the Conservatives to Marks & Spencer.
She quipped: ‘M&S is a brand that has been around for 100 years. Not so long ago, critics said they were a bit stuffy and stuck in the past. Some were even questioning whether the brand would survive. Do you see where I’m going with this, conference? Now, M&S is back in fashion. Great looks at affordable prices.
‘They have adapted their style for today’s market, and people are flooding back, including me.
‘Just like M&S, we must learn from our mistakes, win back trust, and make people feel good about our party again.’
Meanwhile, Reform has had another tough week dogged with questions about their candidate vetting, after an undercover sting found multiple councillors and candidates expressing racist views and using offensive language.
Mr Farage also remains under investigation by Parliament’s sleaze busters over an undeclared £5million ‘gift’ from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. A decision is expected imminently.
On Friday night one Reform insider said senior party figures now believe they could be heading to just 15 per cent in the polls as soon as next month based on their current trajectory.
Looking ahead to the next general election scheduled for 2029, they added: ‘It’s like being on a coach trip to Portugal, but we’ve run out of petrol in Dover.’
Speaking in Scotland on Friday, Mrs Badenoch said the latest Reform revelations were ‘yet another example of how Reform has a behavioural problem across the entire organisation’.
‘I always say that fish rots from the head, and Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice are all under investigation, so it’s no surprise the rest of the party is behaving badly,’ she added.
‘Reform voters are being let down by Reform politicians.’
