Experts Warn Trump’s Diesel Export Ban Could Raise Gas Prices

President Donald Trump is considering a ban on US diesel exports as his administration searches for ways to bring rapidly rising fuel prices under control.

Diesel prices reached record highs this week, triggering concern among Republican congressional candidates only weeks before the closely watched midterm elections. Because diesel powers much of the transportation, farming and industrial economy, the increase is also adding to broader inflation pressures.

Trump said Tuesday, while attending United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, that he had already raised the idea. “Well, I’ve called for that, too,” he said. “I’ve said, ‘Let’s not send out the diesel.’ We make a lot of diesel.”

The national average price for diesel climbed to a record $6.53 a gallon this week, according to AAA. That compares with $3.69 a gallon at the same time last year.

Other senior administration officials have signaled that the White House may favor a narrower strategy instead of a complete export ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the WSJ Journal House that voluntary limits could provide a way to protect US supplies while still accounting for demand in overseas markets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a United Nations bilateral meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that officials were assessing whether a full or partial suspension of diesel exports would accomplish the administration’s objectives.

Yet energy experts and industry executives warn that restricting US diesel exports could produce the opposite result, potentially driving up both diesel and gasoline prices over time.

Mike Sommers, chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, strongly opposed the idea. In a statement, he said that “restricting US energy exports would only compound the problem – exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers.”

Trump himself has acknowledged that interfering with global fuel markets could have unintended consequences for American drivers, conceding that the policy might have “a little bit of effect” on fuel costs for motorists.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains, while Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries have added to pressure on energy markets.

At the same time, US inventories of commercial diesel have fallen by double digits since the Iran war began.

US refineries have been exporting diesel to help address shortages abroad, with government figures showing that overseas shipments have increased by more than 30 percent.

Wright, a former corporate energy executive, has specifically warned that stopping those exports could create immediate problems.

Speaking at an industry event hosted by the Economist this week, he said interrupting the existing trade flow would lead to “more expensive gasoline right away,” placing additional strain on everyday commuters.

Experts predict that banning diesel exports would send average US gasoline costs up by another $0.30. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, predicted that if a diesel ban comes into effect, regular gas prices might shatter previous records.

AAA data put the average US gasoline price just below $4.50 a gallon this week. A further 30-cent increase would push the national average to $5.20—nearly 19 cents above the previous record of $5.02, set in June 2022 during pandemic-related shortages.

Some traders believe keeping more fuel in the domestic market could provide short-term relief for diesel prices. Drew Rathgeber, a commodities specialist, described the likely initial market response if refiners were left with inventory they could no longer export.

‘If refiners lose their export customers for diesel, the extra fuel does pile up here for a while, but then refiners respond by running less crude,’ Rathgeber told Our News Outlet.

This reduction in overall crude oil processing is exactly why a diesel ban would drive up gasoline prices. ‘When they cut back, they make less gasoline too, and that can push pump prices up,’ Rathgeber told us.

Geography also plays a massive role in why a nationwide embargo would fail to help many struggling Americans. 

The Eastern Seaboard relies heavily on foreign imports because domestic pipelines from southern states are notoriously inadequate.

Therefore, a massive surplus of fuel sitting in Texas storage tanks does virtually nothing to lower costs for drivers in New York or Boston. Transporting that excess product up the coast by ship remains incredibly expensive and logistically challenging.

Furthermore, removing American energy from the global equation will inevitably trigger a worldwide bidding war. As international prices surge, the raw crude oil that US companies must purchase will also become significantly more expensive.

Nations that currently depend on American refineries will be forced into a desperate scramble to keep their own economies running. Supply chain experts are already mapping out the catastrophic ripple effects of this geopolitical shift.

‘They would have to find fuel elsewhere, potentially bidding up prices in other markets. That could feed back into the US market rather than insulating it from higher prices,’ cautioned Jennifer Lockett, a freight operations expert.

Ultimately, any relief experienced in a specific US region would be incredibly short-lived. Within weeks, the broader economic fallout would erase any temporary savings at the pump for domestic drivers.

Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, noted that while President Trump may threaten a diesel ban, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, an energy veteran with decades of experience, would be deeply involved in the decision.

‘Trump will take counsel from Wright after all, he appointed him to be a steady energy hand,’ Stanzione told Our News Outlet.

Stanzione told us that what the US needs is more refining capacity, not a diesel ban. The last new US refinery was opened in 1977.

Experts agree that political gimmicks will not solve the fundamental infrastructure problems plaguing the American energy sector. The root cause of the current bottleneck is a severe lack of modern facilities to process raw crude.