Hurricane specialists are cautioning that a developing storm in the Gulf could strengthen into a hurricane this week as it moves toward the densely populated U.S. coastline.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Tropical Storm Isaias could form at any time, assigning the system a 90 percent probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
The disturbance is currently positioned just south of Texas in the southwestern Gulf of America. Updated forecast models indicate that Isaias could reach the United States by Saturday, potentially affecting Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.
A forecasting model developed with Google’s DeepMind artificial intelligence technology places the odds of Isaias becoming at least a Category 1 hurricane at 57 percent. That classification requires sustained winds of more than 75 mph.
Forecasters also see a small possibility that the system could intensify rapidly into a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 storm or stronger, with winds reaching at least 111 mph.
AccuWeather says hurricane-force winds could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, while the storm’s effects may extend well beyond the immediate landfall zone.
The weather service is forecasting widespread heavy rain and flooding across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida’s Panhandle face the greatest risk.
Downpours, destructive wind gusts and isolated tornadoes could also affect Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and southern Ohio during the weekend.
Forecasters say the developing tropical system, which is expected to be named Isaias, could bring serious flooding to multiple Gulf Coast states (File Image)
The storm system is expected to become a tropical storm and could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before the week ends
As of Tuesday, the Atlantic had not produced a hurricane this year. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said the current conditions still make it unlikely that Isaias will develop into an exceptionally powerful storm.
Even so, the system is expected to be strong enough to withstand the wind shear that has disrupted the development of other tropical storms this summer.
DaSilva said in a statement: “We anticipate that this area of showers and thunderstorms will overcome the wind shear and develop into either a tropical depression or tropical storm.”
He added that prevailing steering winds would most likely carry the system north-northeast toward the United States later this week, with landfall expected along the central Gulf Coast over the weekend.
Although powerful winds are working against the storm’s development, forecasters still expect its core to track across Alabama and nearby Gulf Coast states. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph could continue through Sunday.
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As moisture bands move inland, some areas along the Gulf Coast, along with isolated locations in Georgia and North Carolina, could receive as much as eight inches of rain between now and October 12.
A broader region stretching from New Orleans to the Mid-Atlantic states of Maryland and Delaware could see between one and four inches of rainfall this week.
In its most severe projection, AccuWeather warns that the potential tropical storm could deliver up to 25 inches of rain across the hardest-hit parts of the South.
Meteorologists are warning of widespread flooding and intense rainfall across the Southeast this weekend
Google’s AI forecasting models estimate a 57 percent chance that Isaias will strengthen into a hurricane (Source: James Pettus/X)
If Isaias were to beat the odds and grow into a hurricane, it would set a new record for the latest date the first hurricane of the year formed.
There have only been two years on record in which a hurricane failed to develop in the Atlantic, 1907 and 1914.
The historic downturn in hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year has been fueled by the impact of a ‘super El Niño’ on the other side of the US.
El Niño is the widely used name for a natural weather phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become abnormally warm.
This flips weather patterns around the globe, causing the normally chaotic hurricane season along the US East Coast to fizzle before storms have a chance to grow.
AccuWeather noted that the Gulf of America is still extremely warm and capable of providing the fuel for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop – with water temperatures hovering around a scorching 86 degrees Fahrenheit currently.
However, the increasing wind shear throughout the region has knocked down every storm which has formed during hurricane season, which ends on November 30.
Still, climate experts have previously warned that fast-moving tropical cyclones can erupt and reach major hurricane status in less than a week.
Ken Graham, the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, warned before the 2025 hurricane season: ‘Every Category 5 [hurricane] that has ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior.’
