California Gov. Gavin Newsom is increasingly looking like a 2028 presidential contender, with recent stops in Michigan, South Carolina and other politically crucial states fueling speculation about a White House run. But prediction market bettors appear far from convinced.
On Thursday morning, Polymarket showed Newsom’s chances of winning the 2028 presidential election slipping to just 7%, a level the platform characterized as an “all-time low.”
The latest decline extends a months-long slide for the Democratic governor, whose odds on Polymarket stood at 22% in October of last year.
Bettors are now showing more confidence in Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Her odds of winning the presidency have doubled this year to 13%, putting her at the front of the Democratic field on the platform.
Close behind is Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, whose odds sit at 12% as speculation continues to build around his possible 2028 campaign.
At a Thursday press conference in Marin County, The Post asked Newsom whether his California roots could become a political weakness in a national race.
Even some Democrats have questioned whether a California politician can win over swing-state voters, given the state’s soaring cost of living, strict regulatory climate and persistent homelessness crisis — issues critics often tie to its deeply liberal style of governance.
“I think about it very differently than some of the pundits out there,” Newsom said.
The governor rattled off statistics about California’s highest-in-the-nation minimum wage, agricultural output, venture capital and other evidence of what he described as the state’s “dominance.”
READ MORE: Fraser Bohm Trial Delayed as Defense Cites Large Nitrous Oxide Canister Theory
“We’re proud of that,” Newsom said.
On the GOP side, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had 24% and 9% chances on Polymarket respectively. Odds-wise, Vance leads the entire pack of potential candidates.
The shifting dynamics partly reflect real-life trends in the Democratic primary presidential polls conducted this past year. Much of the earlier polls were dominated by Newsom and another Californian, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
But in recent months, a number of polls show the pair losing ground as interest has piqued for other potential candidates.
Ocasio-Cortez, for instance, has grabbed headlines as prominent socialists scored huge victories during nationwide primaries this year.
There’s also been an increase in interest for the likes of Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Still, the most recent polls have generally shown both Newsom and Harris in favorable positions.
The past four polls, for instance, from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2, show Harris leading the pack with Newsom consistently in second or third place.
The California Post contacted Newsom’s office for comment.
