Russia could send ground troops and weapons to launch a limited attack on a NATO member within months, Denmark’s intelligence service warned Thursday.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service issued one of the starkest warnings yet from a NATO ally, describing a “low but growing risk” that Moscow could deploy a small force into a neighboring country or use long-range weapons against infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the agency, known as the FE, said.
FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said Moscow might claim it was acting to protect Russian minorities in other countries. Russian troops could also operate without Kremlin insignia, he warned.
Russia used similar tactics in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine in the years leading up to its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Moscow could also attempt a false-flag operation in which its forces used Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO member, the agency said.
“The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO,” Ahrenkiel said.
Beyond the possibility of direct military action, the FE warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid campaign against Western countries.
Moscow has already faced accusations of severing critical undersea cables in Europe and attempting a drone attack on Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport. The incidents have prompted European Union members to call for fresh sanctions against Russia.
The Danish intelligence service said future Russian hybrid attacks would have “greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past.”
The attacks could extend beyond infrastructure targets and carry “a high risk of casualties,” the FE warned.
“Russia is under pressure and failing to meet its objectives. That is why they are targeting the support being given to Ukraine,” Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus said.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied involvement in hybrid warfare or sabotage operations targeting NATO countries.
Denmark, a country of 6 million people, also assessed that Russia would need about six months to wage a local war against a neighboring NATO member and two years to develop a credible threat to the wider region.
According to the FE, Russia could recover from the war in Ukraine and be ready to wage a large-scale conflict in Europe within five years.
With Post Wires
