Brazil Election Is Biggest Test for Latin America’s Conservative Shift

SÃO PAULO: Brazil votes Sunday in a presidential election that could determine whether Latin America’s largest country becomes the latest to turn toward the political right, following conservative shifts in Colombia, Peru, Chile and other nations. At stake is the future of left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Lula, 80, served time in prison over corruption charges tied to a sprawling bribery scandal. He now holds only a narrow advantage over Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Neither candidate is expected to secure an outright victory in Sunday’s first round. The latest Datafolha survey gives Lula 42% support and Bolsonaro 38%, within a two-point margin of error. In a potential runoff, the poll shows Lula ahead by three points. Still, Brazil’s polling record includes notable misses.

“The problem with Datafolha, which is the largest polling institute in the country, is that it tends to underestimate the strength and voting intention of candidates running against Lula or the Workers Party (PT),” Roberto Reis, an electoral strategist advising candidates at several levels and analyzing polling aggregators, told News Outlet. “This has been consistent for at least over a decade, and it underestimated Jair Bolsonaro’s number in the 2018 runoff by 7%.” Reis said the latest aggregator figures from sources including MRT News and Polling Data show Lula leading Bolsonaro 42% to 39% in the first round, while Bolsonaro leads Lula 45% to 44% in a runoff.

The election, one Brazil analyst argued, represents more than another left-versus-right contest in Latin America. Brazil is the largest major country in the Western Hemisphere that has yet to shift toward conservatism. Although Cuba, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua and Uruguay also have left-wing governments, Brazil is by far the biggest and most influential economy among them. The International Monetary Fund ranks it as the world’s 11th-largest economy, while the World Bank places it 10th.

Throughout the campaign, Bolsonaro has worked to build ties with President Donald Trump while portraying himself as a potential U.S. partner in the Western Hemisphere. The two met at the White House in May and discussed organized crime, tariffs, and Brazil’s reserves of rare earths and critical minerals. Brazil has abundant supplies of both, resources that could help reduce U.S. and European reliance on Russia and China.

Bolsonaro also said he had urged Washington to classify Brazil’s two largest criminal organizations — the First Capital Command, known as PCC, and the Red Command, or Comando Vermelho — as terrorist groups. The State Department approved both designations on May 28, and they took effect in June under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

The U.S. decision angered Lula and his allies, who described it as interference in Brazil’s internal affairs. They also viewed it as an endorsement by the Trump administration of the argument that Lula’s left-wing populist government has failed to do enough to confront organized crime — a move that could benefit Bolsonaro at the ballot box.

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Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed a free-trade agreement between Brazil and the United States, with the possibility of expanding it into a wider trade pact among countries across the Americas. His campaign has also highlighted cooperation with Washington on critical minerals, an increasingly strategic area as the Trump administration seeks to reduce U.S. dependence on China, according to a recent report by Brazil’s leading newspaper, Folha de S. Paulo.

Such an agenda would mark a substantial shift from Lula’s approach to international relations.

China remains Brazil’s largest trading partner. Brazilian agricultural exports to China exceeded $55 billion in 2025, according to Reuters. Lula has defended close ties with Beijing while promoting what he calls an independent foreign policy — one that has at times taken an increasingly assertive stance toward the United States and its allies, including Israel.

Lula’s dealings with Trump have been far more difficult. In July, Washington imposed new 25% tariffs on a broad range of Brazilian products, affecting roughly $7 billion in exports. Lula’s government has challenged the tariffs and pursued negotiations, so far with limited results. The United States has also banned most new permanent visa applications from Brazil, a measure that could affect future green-card applications.

A Bolsonaro administration would pursue closer economic and security ties with the United States, stronger alignment with Israel, a more forceful response to China’s influence in Brazil, and fewer points of friction with Washington and other countries. Turning those promises into policy, however, would require negotiations with Congress, Brazil’s powerful bureaucracy and major economic interests — particularly the country’s agribusiness and mining sectors.

A Lula victory would preserve his current foreign-policy direction: robust commercial relations with China, strategic independence from Washington, and the government’s existing position on Israel and Gaza. Those positions directly challenge Trump’s policies and could further strain U.S.-Brazil relations.

With the contest increasingly expected to proceed to a second round, the result could play a decisive role in shaping a new political landscape in the Americas — and determining the future of U.S. influence in the region.