In a striking revelation, Chile’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) has reported a dramatic decline in the country’s fertility rate, which has now reached the lowest level in its recorded history. The figure stands at a mere 0.97 children per woman, underscoring a significant demographic shift.
The downward trend in Chile’s birth rate has been noticeable since 2010. Last year, the fertility rate was slightly higher at 1.06 children per woman. If this pattern persists, projections suggest it could dip further to just 0.89 by 2028, highlighting a continuing trajectory of decline.
Miguel Ojeda, the INE’s head of demography, has forecasted a notable demographic milestone by 2028. He anticipates that the country will reach a point where deaths outnumber births, ushering in an era of negative population growth.
Chile’s population is predicted to peak at 20,150,948 individuals by 2026. However, a decline is expected thereafter, with numbers projected to fall to 20,643,490 by 2035. Looking further ahead, by the mid-2070s, the population could diminish to approximately 16,972,558.
Amid these shifts, life expectancy in Chile has been on the rise. Ricardo Vicuna, the director of the INE, remarked on the increase from an average of 74.6 years in 1992 to an anticipated 81.8 years by 2025. By 2070, life expectancy is expected to reach an impressive average of 88.4 years.
This increasing longevity, however, presents its own challenges. By 2070, it’s estimated that 42.6 percent of Chile’s population will be over the age of 65. Such a demographic transformation could pose significant challenges for sustaining economic stability and financing social welfare programs, signaling a pressing need for policy adjustments to address the impending changes.
“This combination of very low birth rate and high longevity has transformed the composition of the Chilean population,” he said.
Chile now has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world – lower even than red-alert demographic crisis countries like Japan. The causes are similar to those in other developed countries, notably including women choosing to forego motherhood as their opportunities for higher education and careers increased, but the demographic crunch struck with extraordinary speed in this particular Latin American nation.
“The changes around reproduction in Chilean society have been very fast and abrupt. What took decades in Europe has happened in 10 or 20 years in Chile,” Catholic University sociologist Martina Yopo told the Buenos Aires Times in late 2024.
Yopo suggested two factors driving Chile’s demographic transformation: the swift and widespread acceptance of contraceptives, and universities becoming free to attend in 2008. She also said the Chilean government has done less to reduce the cost of maternity and child care than other countries grappling with demographic decline.
Chilean men turned away from fatherhood at the same time women were delaying or avoiding motherhood. The Buenos Aires Times noted that the number of vasectomies performed in Chile increased almost tenfold between 2013 and 2023.
The United Nations published a World Fertility Report last year that found the fertility rate across all of South America has dropped below the level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, a dramatic change from the 1990s, when families frequently had three or four children.
The U.N. study found that one in 10 nations worldwide have reached a “very low” fertility rate, like Chile. The United States currently has a fertility rate of 1.6 – which was Chile’s rate, almost exactly a decade ago.
