The UFC is on the trail to the Middle East.
Just less than 500 miles away from Tehran, Iran, we’ll have a highly entertaining UFC card with 12 fights on it.
It’s a crazy time to be a UFC fan, as we get the second loaded pay-per-view card of the month next week.
UFC Baku comes at you early Saturday, beginning at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2, and the main card will go off at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
A large crowd is anticipated as six out of the 12 fights are estimated to go the distance, according to bookmakers — and notably, projections indicate that five of the initial six fights might follow this pattern, suggesting a potentially slow start to the event.
UFC Baku Azerbaijan predictions
Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
In the heavyweight category, the matchup between Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. is currently set as an even match by most betting analysts.
On Wednesday, Hill was an underdog and among my best bets on the card.
Frankly, he is still there for me, even if some of the value has evaporated as we approach the weekend.
Hill is coming off two competitive losses.
Rountree was beaten down last time out against Alex Pereira in one of the more brutal and violent displays we’ve seen in the octagon of late.
Rountree looked like a punching bag as he got to the third and fourth rounds of that fight.
Reviewing his track record, his most notable victories include a decision win over Dustin Jacoby — a judgment that I disagreed with at the time and still feel was undeserved upon watching it again — and a triumph over the now-retired Anthony Smith.
Rountree isn’t worth betting as a slight favorite, and Hill is the play this weekend.
PICK: Jamahal Hill ML (-102, FanDuel) | by KO/TKO (+240, DraftKings)
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Coming off three straight losses, Rafael Fiziev faces Ignacio Bahamondes.
Two strikers are coming into Saturday night’s co-main event tilt, and it should be fascinating to see how Fiziev recovers after the beatdown he received at the hands of Justin Gaethje.
When reviewing tape, though, I think Fiziev is a solid matchup for Bahamondes.
Bahamondes is much taller, but kicks have seldom been an issue for Fiziev and his strikes to the body pose an imminent threat to Bahamondes as this fight pushes forward.
Fiziev should be able to utilize kicks to the body and legs to immobilize Bahamondes a bit, and I have a tough time backing the favorite here considering his strength of schedule is far below that of Fiziev.
Fiziev was once considered a title contender and just because he’s not the same level of striker as Gathje, it doesn’t mean he should be an underdog Saturday.
PICK: Fiziev by decision (+260, FanDuel)
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UFC full card picks
Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.: Jamahal Hill ML (-102, FanDuel) | by KO/TKO (+240, DraftKings)
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes: Fiziev by decision (+260, FanDuel)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev: Fight starts round 2 (-290, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai: Orolbai by KO/TKO (+500, Bet365)
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta: Sadykhov by decision (+370, FanDuel)
Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad: Fight ends by KO/TKO (+130, DraftKings)
Seokhyeon Ko vs. Oban Elliott: Fight goes the distance (-116, FanDuel)
Ismail Naurdiev vs. JunYong Park: Naurdiev ML (+165, Caesars Sportsbook)
Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Mullins: Fight goes the distance (+120, BetMGM)
Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Sygula: Fight goes the distance (-125, BetRivers)
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum: Ulanbekov by decision (-110, Bet365)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+160, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
