The Federal Reserve delivered the move Wall Street had been anticipating Wednesday, lifting interest rates for the first time in three years. But Chairman Kevin Warsh followed the decision with an unexpected hawkish warning, leaving the door open to further increases as the central bank works to contain persistent inflation.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point, a widely expected step that will make credit cards and other forms of borrowing slightly more expensive. Investors nevertheless reacted sharply: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 631 points, or 1.2%.
Markets were rattled by the apparent disconnect between the Fed’s projections and Warsh’s comments. Officials forecast one additional rate increase in 2026 and none in 2027, while Warsh indicated that the central bank could keep tightening if necessary to bring inflation decisively under control.
“In this press conference, Warsh revealed his true inner hawk and a willingness to lead in that direction,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in a note to clients.
Here are three important conclusions from the Fed’s latest meeting.
Warsh is determined to tame inflation
Warsh, whom President Trump selected earlier this year to replace longtime Fed Chair Jerome Powell, had already promised to confront inflation. Still, economists questioned how firmly he would pursue that objective after he echoed some of Trump’s arguments that the economy might benefit from lower interest rates.
That calculation appears to have shifted. Since Warsh’s nomination in January, inflation has accelerated substantially, fueled largely by the war in Iran and its effect on worldwide oil prices.
Consumer prices were increasing at a 2.4% annual pace in January, close to the Fed’s 2% target. A surge in crude prices erased much of that progress, pushing the Consumer Price Index to a three-year high of 4.2% in May. Inflation has since cooled modestly, reaching 3.4% in August, but remains well above levels policymakers consider acceptable.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,” Warsh said at a news conference following Wednesday’s decision. He emphasized that the Fed intends to respond to rising prices in a more “timelier” manner.
Jaison Davis, an economic research analyst at GlobalData, said the remarks suggested a policy of “higher rates for longer.” The threshold for cutting rates, he added, is now considerably higher and will require convincing evidence that inflation is moving back toward the Fed’s target.
The Iran war is complicating life for the Fed
Warsh cited the conflict in Iran as a factor behind the unanimous decision to raise rates. The war has sharply curtailed oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, while intensifying clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen threaten another crucial shipping route.
Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel in recent weeks, driving up fuel costs for U.S. households. Diesel prices hit a record $6.40 per gallon Thursday, up 73% from a year earlier, while gasoline reached $4.44 per gallon, a 38% annual increase, according to AAA.
“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world, and our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely of the geopolitical situation has changed,” Warsh said.
Although the Fed cannot directly determine oil prices, Warsh said it must prevent higher energy costs from spreading throughout the broader economy.
“We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices, whether it be foodstuffs at the grocery store. But what we can do and will do is ensure that any changes in relative prices don’t broaden out,” he said.
The Fed is willing to buck the White House
Warsh’s forceful stance on inflation is also strengthening his standing with investors, an important source of credibility as Fed officials seek to shape expectations about the economy and future policy.
“After yesterday’s Fed meeting, not just because of the hike but also thanks to the hawkish tone, the new Fed Chair has established his credibility,” Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, said in a research note.
President Trump responded Wednesday afternoon by posting on social media that interest rates should be “1% or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR.” He then called for the rates to be cut “for the United States of America, and fast!”
Economists viewed Warsh’s inflation comments as evidence that the Fed is prepared to take whatever steps are needed to lower prices, even if doing so puts it at odds with the White House.
“Hiking was the right move, and it restores Fed credibility that the central bank will curb inflation no matter what the White House or anyone else says,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email.
Alain Sherter
