In an unexpected twist, Governor Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50, which aimed to secure a Democratic advantage in California’s elections, might have misfired in a recently redefined congressional district near Sacramento. The redistricting strategy seems to have inadvertently bolstered the chances of U.S. Representative Kevin Kiley, a staunch adversary of Newsom, to maintain his seat.
Republicans are reveling in the prospect that Kiley, despite the strategic changes, stands a strong chance of re-election following this week’s primary. There’s even a possibility that Democratic contenders could be shut out of the race entirely. “Certain politicians think they can move lines around on a map and choose your representative for it,” Kiley remarked as election results began to roll in. “But they forgot one thing: we still get to vote.”
Proposition 50, supported by voters last year, was crafted as Newsom’s countermeasure to former President Donald Trump’s efforts in red states to redraw districts favorably for Republicans. This measure aimed to challenge Kiley, who has represented a steadfastly Republican area that stretches from Warner Valley in the north to Death Valley National Park in the south. The revised boundaries supposedly handed Democrats an 8-point lead.
Faced with the redistricting, Kiley made a strategic move by opting to run in a different congressional district located in Sacramento County. He also made the significant decision to change his political affiliation from Republican to independent, a move that may resonate with a broader range of voters.
A target of Prop 50 was to push out Kiley, who represents a safely Republican area along the California-Nevada border stretching from north in Warner Valley to south in Death Valley National Park. After the redraw that removed much of the district’s rural swaths, that district supposedly has an 8-point advantage for Democrats.
In response, Kiley decided to run in another congressional district entirely in Sacramento County and most notably, change his party affiliation from Republican to independent.
That strategy appeared to pay off. According to early results, with 53% of estimated ballots counted so far, Kiley is in the lead with nearly 27% of the vote share.
Another stunning twist: A virtually unknown Republican, Michael Stansfield, is currently in second with 22% of the vote. If Stansfield stays in second, no Democrats will advance to the general election under California’s top-two primary system — a huge embarrassment for Democrats.
âYou might have a situation where a Republican, who really is not a serious candidate, but is the only candidate in the field that had an R next to his name, he might make it into the second spot,â Paul Mitchell, the architect behind the Prop 50 map, told CNN.
âI definitely think this is a big concern, and this is one of those things where Democrats had one job,â Mitchell added.
Stansfield told KCRA he was surprised given he couldn’t afford a single commercial or sign. He suspected a large Democratic field of five candidates may have splintered its voting base.
The Democrats’ best shot in the district is former state lawmaker Dr. Richard Pan, who currently is in third place at 21% of the vote. Pan is around 1,100 votes behind Stansfield.
A number of experts remain confident that Pan will eventually beat out Stansfield after more votes are counted, especially in a district that leaned heavily toward Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024. Democratic voters often make up a larger share of later-counted ballots in California.
“I am grateful to the voters of the 6th Congressional District,” Pan said in a statement. “Once every vote is counted, we are confident I will advance to the General Election.”
