WASHINGTON (AP) — As the holiday season approaches, the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington, D.C. is preparing for a significant increase in demand. This anticipated surge is spurred by several challenging factors, including an unprecedented government shutdown, widespread government worker layoffs, and recent reductions in federal food assistance.

Serving the District of Columbia, northern Virginia, and two Maryland counties, the food bank is stepping up its efforts by providing an additional 8 million meals this fiscal year—a substantial 20% increase over initial plans. “The city is facing particularly tough times,” explained Radha Muthiah, CEO and president of the organization, “due to the series of events that have unfolded this year.”

The capital has been hit by a string of decisions from the Trump administration that have compounded its economic struggles. These range from the dismissal of federal employees to heightened law enforcement activities in the area. The ongoing government shutdown, which has led to furloughs and discontinued food aid, is exacerbating the financial strain on the region.

Economic indicators reflect these challenges. The D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis has yet to factor in workforce shifts since the government shutdown began on October 1. Nonetheless, data from September already highlighted distressing trends, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 6%, notably higher than the national average of 4.3%, and leading the nation for several months.

This economic turbulence is also influencing the political landscape. Democrat Abigail Spanberger recently secured the governorship in Virginia, capitalizing on voter concerns regarding the economic impact of President Trump’s policies on the state. Her victory underscores the growing political ramifications of the ongoing economic difficulties faced by many communities in the region.

The economic woes appear to be reverberating politically. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won election Tuesday as Virginia’s governor after focusing her campaign message on the effects of President Donald Trump’s actions on the state’s economy.

The shutdown’s long-term impact on the regional economy will be felt long after the government reopens, experts say.

Local businesses feeling the crunch

Washington has the country’s largest share of federal workers — about 20%, according to official figures — and roughly 150,000 federal employees call the area home. By Monday, hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country will have missed at least two full paychecks because of the shutdown. Nationally, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while about 730,000 are working without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

During the shutdown, the number of federal employees on Washington’s transit system each weekday has dropped by about one-quarter compared with ridership in September. Eateries that the Restaurant Association of Greater Washington says were already dealing with thin margins from seasonal declines and the fallout from Trump’s deployment of armed National Guard members on city streets are facing more challenges at a time when owners had hoped for a rebound.

Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at Brookings Metro, a think tank, said that going without paychecks is causing significant cash flow issues for federal workers, potentially leading to defaults on mortgages and student loans. For local businesses, especially those reliant on federal workers’ discretionary spending, it could exacerbate the impact during the high-sales October-December quarter.

“A lot of businesses rely on higher spending in Q4 in order to have a revenue positive year,” Loh said.

Small businesses are feeling the loss of that spending.

The crowd watching Liverpool’s Premier League game last weekend would have been standing room only at The Queen Vic, a bar in Northeast Washington. But that was not the case, said Ryan Gordon, co-owner of the British pub.

“We still had seats for people, which means the bars around us who get our overflow got nothing,” Gordon said.

Business is down about 50% compared with what it was before the shutdown, he said. He considers himself lucky in the local restaurant scene because he owns the building and does not have to pay rent.

“To the extent to which discretionary spending by D.C. area households is limited, that could push a lot of local businesses into the red,” Loh said. The culmination of the shutdown, cut in SNAP benefits and layoffs are weighing heavy on households that have never sought help before, she added.

A family gets squeezed out of the region

Thea Price was fired from her job at the U.S. Institute of Peace in March of this year, part of the wave of layoffs meant to shrink the size of the federal government. Her husband, a government contractor, also lost his job at a museum. Since then, they have lived on savings, Medicaid and SNAP.

Price, 37, recently went to a food pantry in Arlington, Virginia, for the first time recently. The shutdown halted funding for SNAP, after it took her months to get it, and the $500 payments she receives each month were set to stop. Virginia sent a partial payment but it was not enough, Price said. With her options to sustain herself and her family running out, Price is moving back to her hometown in the Seattle area.

“We can’t afford to stay in the area any longer and hope that something might pan out,” she said. “We’re just in a much different place than when these things started in March.”

At the Capital Area Food Bank in Northeast Washington, forklifts sped around in a controlled chaos, unloading trucks, moving food and preparing for a distribution set up for federal employees and contractors, and preparations are intensifying with the holiday season in mind. The organization is expecting to provide 1 million more meals this month than it had anticipated before the shutdown.

“We’re very focused obviously on the immediacy of all of these impacts today and getting food to those who need it,” said Muthiah, the group’s director. But she cautioned there were long-term implications to the unfolding crisis, with people tapping their savings and retirement funds to get by.

“People are borrowing against their futures to be able to pay for basic necessities today,” she said.

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Associated Press video journalist Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.