The latest extended forecast from Europe indicates a definite occurrence of a super El Niño, which could lead to reduced hurricane activity and a wetter fall and winter in the southern United States.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), their May long-range forecast model suggests a significantly increased likelihood of a record-breaking El Niño by November.
Earlier in March, projections extended only through September, with a mere 55% probability of reaching the Super El Niño threshold at that time.
The FOX Forecast Center noted that predicting an El Niño of this magnitude so early could make it a historically significant event for future reflection.
Typically, a powerful El Niño would result in diminished hurricane activity in the Atlantic, while boosting it in the Eastern Pacific.
However, the ECMWF has not yet projected a substantial decline in hurricane numbers for the upcoming season, indicating that the most intense effects of El Niño may not be evident until later in the season.
The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf.
The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season.
The forecast does, however, paint a picture of below-average tropical activity across most of the Atlantic Main Development Region. This essentially means that while El Niño is set to shut down the Atlantic tropics, it may not shut down all of it, the FOX Forecast Center said.Â
Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season follows on June 1.
Now that the forecast has been extended, models show above-average rain across the South.Â
The FOX Forecast Center expects that the winter months are likely to be beneficial for the Southeast, which is deep in drought.Â
