The United States and Iran reached a preliminary accord Monday aimed at preserving their fragile ceasefire and paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, major obstacles stand in the way of a broader end to the conflict, including the unresolved question of whether Israel will halt its military campaign in Lebanon.
Key terms of the agreement were not immediately made public, and the arrangement does not appear set to take effect until it is formally signed. Pakistan, which has been serving as a mediator, said that signing is expected Friday in Geneva. Even if the Strait of Hormuz — a vital route for global oil and natural gas shipments — is fully reopened at that point, the worldwide energy turmoil triggered by its closure is expected to take months to subside.
Complicating matters further, Israel’s defense minister said Monday that Israeli forces will not leave territory captured in Lebanon, where the country is battling the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group. Israel entered the war alongside the United States on Feb. 28, but it is not part of the new agreement. A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue acting against any threat to its national security.
That position alone could undermine the agreement, as Iran has made clear that any deal to end the war must also bring an end to the fighting in Lebanon.
The accord faces additional high-stakes hurdles as well. It sets a 60-day deadline to determine the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its broader nuclear program — activities the United States and Israel fear could support the development of a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s repeated insistence that its program is for peaceful purposes. Reaching the 2015 nuclear deal took years of negotiations between Iran and world powers, underscoring how difficult such issues can be to resolve.
President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from that agreement during his first term, a move that helped fuel the tensions that eventually erupted into the current war. The conflict has killed thousands across the Middle East, including senior figures in Iran’s ruling theocracy, while also driving up the cost of fuel, food and other essential goods well beyond the region.
Trump, who faced pressure to end the war ahead of congressional midterm elections in November, hailed the agreement on social media, saying he had authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. He later said the strait wouldn’t open until Friday.
The U.S. military said the blockade will remain in place “pending execution” of the deal.
“Do not attempt to cross until explicit direction is given,” it said Monday in an advisory to merchant ships.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the agreement on state television but said Iran would not start implementing it until it was signed.
Early in the war, Iranian attacks on ships brought traffic in the crucial waterway – through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passed before the conflict – to a near standstill. Trump implemented a blockade in response.
The closure of the strait, Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the blockade sent fuel prices skyrocketing, and the knock-on effects rippled through the world economy. Energy experts say it will likely take months before energy companies can resume operations to the point of meeting the world’s demand.
Iranian and U.S. officials will hold preparatory meetings in Doha, Qatar, this week before the signing, said a diplomat with direct knowledge of the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door meetings.
Vice President JD Vance said an interim deal to end the conflict was electronically signed Sunday ahead of the planned ceremony in Switzerland. The White House hopes to release the memorandum of understanding in the coming days, he said.
“I think when people see this deal … they’re going to realize that this is going to make the whole region safer,” Vance said Monday in an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The success of the deal rests at least partially on what happens between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday nearly derailed the negotiations, and a previous attack led Iran to fire on Israel and Israel to fire back.
Defense Minister Israel Katz, meanwhile, said Israel plans to stay “indefinitely” in land it holds in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. Over the past 2 1/2 years, Israel has taken control of areas in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria amounting to 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of territory.
Katz also threatened that if Iran attacks Israel over its strikes in Lebanon, Israel will strike Iran with “great force.”
Asked where Israel stands on the deal, David Mencer, a spokesman in Netanyahu’s office, told The Associated Press that Israel and the U.S. remain fully aligned on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But he added that Israel will not tolerate attacks from Hezbollah on its territory and will continue to act against those who seek to harm its citizens.
Israel and the U.S. began the war apparently in lockstep, but the war has created deep fractures in that close relationship, with Trump eager to end a conflict that is deeply unpopular with the American public and Netanyahu intent on destroying Hezbollah. Trump appears to have grown increasingly frustrated with the Israeli leader, even occasionally publicly insulting him, including telling The New York Times on Sunday that he was a “very difficult guy.”
In a sign of the deal’s fragility, the Lebanese army called on residents not to rush to return to border villages, saying they should follow military instructions because of the danger of “Israeli violations and aggression.”
Many Lebanese who had fled following Israeli evacuation orders and intense fighting were heading south, however, to check on their homes. Celine Fayad, driving south, said she will test how far she could go. Her village, Aitaroun, is along the border with Israel. It was among the first to be occupied and lies in ruins.
“We were expecting to return,” she said. “Thanks to Iran.”
Ali Haidar was among the first to return to Nabatiyeh, the southern city at the heart of the latest Israeli military operations, where many central buildings have been reduced to dust.
“This used to be our home, our childhood home where we have all of our memories. This is where we grew up. Now it’s gone,” Haidar said. “We will return to rubble and sand. It’s better than being displaced.”
In its first public statement after the deal’s announcement, Hezbollah credited Iran with a “major achievement” in reaching the agreement, which it said could lead to “the full liberation of our land, the return of our prisoners to their homeland and families,” and reconstruction of war-devastated areas.
Along with praising the deal, the militant group said it was committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved.”
Despite the uncertainties, world leaders from Europe to China welcomed the agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is hosting Trump and other world leaders at a Group of Seven summit this week, said France and other Western partners are “ready to take action very quickly” to help restore normal shipping traffic in the strait once the U.S. and Iran agree to such a mission.
Others have expressed caution that the deal remains tentative. Luxembourg’s foreign minister, Xavier Bettel, noted: “It’s a long time till Friday.”
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