Leading Polling Expert Warns Democrats to Brace for California Governor’s Race

In the race to succeed California’s term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, Democrats find themselves increasingly concerned about the crowded field of candidates. The worry stems from the possibility that the two Republican contenders could potentially shut Democrats out of the general election in this predominantly blue state.

This concern is not unfounded, according to Paul Mitchell, a recognized expert in polling and redistricting. Mitchell, who is affiliated with the voting data firm Political Data Inc. and played a significant role in Newsom’s Prop 50 gerrymandering initiative, has developed a predictive tool. This tool uses mathematical models to forecast which candidates are likely to secure the top two spots in the June primary, thus advancing to the November election.

At present, the tool indicates a roughly 17% chance that both Republican candidates will advance to the November runoff. This figure is significantly higher than the 2% to 3% threshold that would provide Democrats with a sense of security, as Mitchell pointed out.

“Democrats have a valid reason to be concerned,” Mitchell commented, emphasizing the precarious situation.

The predictive tool, which analyzes simulated elections using polling data, campaign finances, and other relevant factors, consistently shows GOP candidate Steve Hilton with a 73% likelihood of clinching a top-two position. Meanwhile, the other Republican contender, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, has a 40% chance. None of the Democratic candidates appear to have a probability higher than these figures, intensifying Democratic worries.

The tool, which runs simulated elections based on polling data, campaign finance and other factors, consistently gives GOP candidate Steve Hilton around a 73% chance of securing a top-two spot. It gives the other Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a 40% chance. None of the other candidates, all of whom are Democrats, have a higher probability.

Hilton, however, poured cold water on the simulations, telling The Post that the “Democratic machine” has been lining up behind Rep. Eric Swalwell to ensure there won’t be a two-Republican runoff.

“The more likely situation is that you’ll have two Democrats in the top two than two Republicans, and that’s why we have to act now on our side to get behind the strongest Republican candidate, and that’s me,” he said.

California’s Democratic Party had been urging lower-polling candidates, such as former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa or former state controller Betty Yee, to exit the race. That way, more of their votes could go to higher-polling candidates like Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former congresswoman Katie Porter.

But strategy likely won’t work anymore, Mitchell said.

“They can’t really drop out; they still would be on the ballot,” he noted. “And so they’ll still get votes.”

Mitchell pointed to the case of former state Sen. Leland Yee, who withdrew his 2014 candidacy for secretary of state after the FBI arrested him on racketeering charges. Yee nonetheless came in third in the race with 380,361 votes.

Instead, the pollster said he’s that heard organizations are potentially looking at changing their endorsements or spending their money differently.

“Those kind of things can have the impact of changing the outcome of the election,” he said.

As for Republicans, their best option is not to try to “game” the system to improve the odds of an all-GOP runoff, Mitchell said. Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s Reform California group has been urging Republicans to not split their vote evenly between Hilton or Bianco — otherwise there’s a real risk neither make it to the top two.

“With a great risk of a shutout if Republicans split their votes, a choice must be made — one driven by data,” DeMaio said. “Whichever Republican candidate for governor is leading when you cast your ballot should receive your vote.”

It may actually be in GOP’s interest to put a single Republican candidate on the November ballot. The risk is catastrophic if the GOP gambles and misses out completely come November, Mitchell said.

“There’s no expectation Republicans are going to win statewide, but if they don’t have somebody on a statewide ballot, then they can’t have somebody to kind of rally troops to turn out the vote,” Mitchell explained.

That means Republicans would suffer tremendously in down-ballot races, from school boards to statehouse seats, he noted.

California Democrats, on the other hand, still have that 82% chance or so of having one Democrat make the runoff. But they shouldn’t get too comfortable with those odds.

“The odds were in Hillary Clinton’s favor,” Mitchell said.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters