Democrat Xavier Becerra has surged to a sizable early advantage in California’s race for governor, pulling well ahead of Republican Steve Hilton only weeks after both candidates emerged from the state’s primary, a new poll shows.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey found Becerra leading Hilton by 25 percentage points among likely voters. The former health secretary drew 61% support, while Hilton, a former Fox News host now running as the Republican nominee, stood at 36%.
The gap represents a sharp change from the June 2 blanket primary, when Becerra placed first with about 28.1% of the vote and Hilton finished close behind at roughly 24.7%.
California’s top-two primary system sent both candidates to the Nov. 3 general election, regardless of party, after Gov. Gavin Newsom was prevented from running again because of term limits.
The PPIC findings indicate Becerra has successfully brought much of the Democratic electorate back together after a crowded primary field, including voters who supported billionaire Tom Steyer, who fell just short of making the runoff.
Becerra held an advantage across nearly every major category measured in the poll. He led Hilton among different age groups, men and women, homeowners and renters, income brackets, racial and ethnic groups, and in every major region of California.
Partisanship remained a defining feature of the contest: 93% of Democratic likely voters supported Becerra, while 90% of Republicans backed Hilton. Independents also leaned heavily toward Becerra, favoring him 60% to 34%.
The survey also suggested that environmental policy may become a key issue shaping the race heading into November.
About 85% of likely voters said the gubernatorial candidates’ positions on environmental issues are important when deciding their vote, including 48% who described them as “very important.”
Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans to prioritize the issue, with 60% calling it very important compared with 29% of Republicans and 44% of independents.
The findings come as California continues grappling with devastating wildfires, climate change concerns and debates over environmental regulations — issues expected to feature prominently throughout the general election campaign.
The poll also showed Democrats maintaining a sizable advantage in California’s congressional races. When asked about their local US House contests, 63% of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate, while 35% backed the Republican candidate, a result that has remained largely unchanged since earlier PPIC surveys this year.
The survey also found Californians remain far more favorable toward Newsom than President Donald Trump on environmental issues. About half of likely voters approved of Newsom’s handling of environmental policy, while just one in four approved of Trump’s performance.
The survey of 1,578 California adults, including 1,003 likely voters, was conducted in English and Spanish between June 29 and July 6 as California’s general election campaign begins to take shape ahead of the Nov. 3 vote.
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