Postwar Strategy: Kremlin Confirms Russian Police and National Guard Presence in Ukraine’s Donbas

By DASHA LITVINOVA and ILLIA NOVIKOV

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a move that highlights Russia’s intentions in the ongoing conflict, a high-ranking Kremlin official announced that Russian police and the National Guard will continue their presence in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. This decision will hold even if a peace agreement is reached to conclude the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine.

Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov’s statements reveal Moscow’s desire to sustain its influence over the industrially significant Donbas area post-conflict. Such a position is likely to meet resistance from Ukraine, especially as negotiations led by the United States continue, albeit with difficulty.

In related developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported success on the battlefield, with Ukrainian forces reclaiming several settlements and neighborhoods around Kupiansk in the northeastern Kharkiv region. This progress follows months of strategic operations aimed at reversing Russian gains in the area.

Kupiansk has been a focal point in the roughly 600-mile front line, making the Ukrainian advance of approximately 40 square kilometers (15 square miles) a significant setback for Russian forces. This development contrasts sharply with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent assertions.

Less than two months ago, Putin claimed that Ukrainian troops in Kupiansk were encircled and even extended an offer for their surrender, suggesting that a media visit to the area would validate his position. Putin has consistently attempted to project Russia as having the upper hand in negotiations throughout the conflict.

Obstacles in a push to peace

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s office said he would host Zelenskyy on Monday for talks as peace efforts gain momentum and European leaders seek to steer negotiations. Afterward, numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the leaders of the European Union and NATO, will join the meeting, a statement said.

Moscow will give its blessing to a ceasefire only after Ukraine’s forces have withdrawn from the front line, Ushakov also said in comments published Friday in Russian business daily Kommersant.

He told Kommersant “it’s entirely possible that there won’t be any troops (in the Donbas), either Russian or Ukrainian” in a postwar scenario. But he said that “there will be the National Guard, our police, everything necessary to maintain order and organize life.”

For months, American negotiators have tried to navigate the demands of each side as U.S. President Donald Trump presses for a swift end to Russia’s war and grows increasingly exasperated by delays. The search for possible compromises has run into a major obstacle over who keeps Ukrainian territory that Russian forces have occupied so far.

Since Moscow’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and the seizure of territory in the east by Russia-backed separatists later that year, as well as land taken after the full-blown invasion was launched on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia has captured about 20% of its neighbor.

Ukraine says its constitution doesn’t allow it to surrender land. Russia, which illegally annexed Donetsk and three other regions illegally in 2022, says the same. Ushakov said that “no matter what the outcome (of peace talks), this territory (the Donbas) is Russian Federation territory.”

On Thursday, Trump compared the negotiations to a very complex real estate deal. He said that he wants to see more progress in talks before sending envoys to possible meetings with European leaders over the weekend.

In October, Trump said the Donbas region will have to be “cut up” to end the war.

Ukrainian counterattacks

In recent months, Russia’s army has made a determined push to gain control of all parts of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk, which together make up the valuable Donbas region.

Its slow slog across the Ukrainian countryside, using its significant advantage in troop numbers in a corrosive war of attrition, has been costly in terms of casualties and losses of armor. Although outnumbered, Ukrainian defenders have held firm in many areas and counterattacked in others.

Ukrainian forces said Friday that they had advanced around Kupiansk. They gradually cut off Russian supply routes into the city, starting on Sept. 22, and regained control of the villages of Kindrashivka and Radkivka, as well as several northern districts of the city, according to a statement by Ukrainian National Guard’s Khartia Corps posted on Facebook.

Fighting is ongoing in central Kupiansk, where more than 200 Russian soldiers are encircled, the statement said.

Zelenskyy posted a video of himself standing on the road into Kupiansk on Friday. Explosions could be heard in the background as he spoke.

“Today, it is critically important to achieve results on the battlefield so that Ukraine can achieve results in diplomacy,” Zelenskyy said in the video, praising his troops on Ukraine’s Ground Forces Day.

Russian officials made no immediate comment, and the Ukrainians statements couldn’t be independently verified.

Ukraine also has developed its long-range strike capabilities using domestically produced weapons to disrupt Russia’s war machine.

Its Special Operations Forces, or SSO, said Friday that an operation in the Caspian Sea struck two Russian vessels carrying military equipment and arms.

The ships named Kompozitor Rakhmaninov and Askar-Saridzha are under U.S. sanctions for transporting arms between Russia and Iran, the SSO said in a statement on social media. It didn’t say what weapons it used in its attack.

Cross-border drone strikes

A Ukrainian drone attack wounded seven people, including a child, in the Russian city of Tver, acting Gov. Vitaly Korolev said Friday. Falling drone debris struck an apartment building in the city, which lies northwest of Moscow, Korolev said.