Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett from Texas’s 30th district is no longer just leading in the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary—she’s significantly pulling ahead as early voting progresses.
According to a statewide survey conducted from February 2 to February 16, Representative Crockett, who hails from Dallas, is increasing her lead over her competitor, state Representative James Talarico. Early voting commenced on February 17 and will continue through February 27, leading up to the March primary. This surge in Crockett’s support is occurring as voters are actively casting their ballots.
She now holds a twelve-point lead.
This isn’t a minor fluctuation; it’s a clear upward trend.
In late January, polls showed her with an eight-point advantage after a period when the race appeared much closer. Since then, the momentum has consistently been in her favor.
The broader polling averages reflect this narrative as well. This isn’t just an isolated surge in one poll; it’s a continuing expansion of her lead.
The broader polling average tells the same story. This is not a one-survey spike. It is a widening margin.
Inside Democrat circles, the tone is already shifting. One longtime party strategist posted this week that DSCC sources believe Crockett is “likely winning,” adding that an attack line against her opponent “worked.” Whether that is spin or confidence, it is not the language of a campaign expecting the race to tighten.
As I’ve said since being in DC a few weeks ago, DSCC sources tell me they’re resigned to Crockett likely winning. The Colin Allard attack worked.
Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds https://t.co/cdTgNTNoU9
— dan turrentine (@danturrentine) February 25, 2026
On the Republican side, it looks very different. The GOP primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains tight, with single-digit spreads and competitive movement depending on the poll. That race is still unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a way that signals clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction inside the party.
The Democrat primary is increasingly not.
Primaries usually tighten as voting begins. They do not typically widen. Moving from a single-digit edge to a 12-point margin while ballots are being cast suggests Democrat voters are making a decision, not hesitating.
Crockett has not built her profile by playing it safe. Over the past year, she has leaned into sharp exchanges, viral moments, and snappy soundbites that regularly spill beyond Texas politics. In recent immigration flashpoints, Democrat lawmakers used similar framing, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the details were clear, only for later information to destroy the narrative. That posture has not hurt her in this primary. If anything, it appears to be part of what is consolidating support around her.
New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid
While Republicans are still competing for position, Democrats appear increasingly comfortable with theirs.
Polls are snapshots. They always are.
But widening margins during early voting are not meaningless noise. They suggest consolidation. And consolidation this early is not accidental.
Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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