TUCSON, Ariz. — The discovery of blood spatter on the porch of Nancy Guthrie’s home suggests she was still alive when forcibly taken from her residence in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson. A retired FBI profiler believes the perpetrator, who acted alone, made critical errors that could lead to his eventual capture.
“The evidence shows she was alive at the time,” remarked Jim Clemente, who dedicated 22 years to the FBI.
Clemente’s conclusions stem from his examination of the blood patterns on Guthrie’s porch. He noted a concentration of round droplets near the front door, gradually thinning as they extended toward the driveway.
Surveillance footage from the morning of Guthrie’s disappearance on February 1, 2026, in Tucson, Arizona, shows an armed individual tampering with her front door camera.
“Her blood pattern indicates she likely aspirated and coughed up blood while her face was near the ground. This scenario seems improbable if two people were carrying her at the time,” Clemente explained to Fox News Digital.
Nancy Guthrie, 84, and the mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from her home around 2:30 a.m. on February 1. Initially, few leads were available, but progress was made when the FBI and Google retrieved footage from her Nest doorbell camera. The video captured a masked man, wearing gloves and equipped with a holstered pistol, approaching her doorstep the night she disappeared.
Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)
He is described as above average height and build. He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack, long sleeves, gloves and a ski mask. And he remains unidentified nearly 100 days later.
Still, the video is full of clues, Clemente told Fox News Digital.
Although the suspect is believed to have scouted the location in advance, he resorted to using foliage to block the Nest camera lens and had the potential to shed facial hair through his ski mask, Clemente said.
“In the process of doing that, I believe he revealed what looked like a tattoo on his wrist, which would not have been revealed had he adequately prepared for that camera being there,” he said.
Aerial drone shots show the home and grounds of Nancy Guthrie in Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. Nancy Guthrie, mother of ‘Today’ show host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from inside on Feb. 1. (Fox Flight Team/Fox News)
“So it tells me that he is not a sophisticated offender. He was sort of bumbling his way through this, and he made other mistakes, and I believe those mistakes will directly lead to his capture.”
While investigators have kept details about the inside of the home close, some have leaked, and they paint a story, Clemente said.
“I believe that what it means is he threatened her with his gun when he was at her bedside,” he told Fox News Digital. “He got her to come down, and at the front door is where she realized he’s going to take me and this is very dangerous and I should fight. And she did.”
An armed individual appears to tamper with a Google Nest camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door in Tucson, Arizona, on Feb. 1, 2026, the morning of her disappearance. (FBI)
The doorbell video does not show Guthrie being taken from her home, although there was blood clearly visible on her stone walkway. The camera itself was missing when deputies arrived the next morning. However, the fact that the FBI was able to recover video anyway likely shocked the kidnapper, Clemente said, and someone in his orbit should have been able to pick up the signs.
The FBI released two images recovered from Nancy Guthrie’s Nest doorbell camera showing a masked man wearing gloves on her porch. It is unclear if both images show the same person. (Courtesy of FBI)
“Because of all the mistakes this guy made, because of his ineptness and non-professional behavior in this, I believe that he exhibited a great degree of stress when the images were first released,” Clemente said. “Anybody around him should have noticed that change in behavior and potentially be able to identify him because of that.”
There was also an unidentified hair sample recovered from the home. The sheriff’s department initially sent it to a private lab in Florida. After 11 weeks, the lab there sent it to the FBI for more advanced analysis.
A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Department stands in front of the house of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, in Tucson, Ariz., on Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)
“If it is a hair from the offender, then it will lead to his identification,” Clemente said. “They will have his name.”
There is a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information that cracks the case.
To remain anonymous, contact Tucson’s 88-Crime tip line at (520) 882-7463.
The family is also urging anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.
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