Houthi Attacks Turn Bab el-Mandeb Into Next Hormuz Flashpoint

A surge in attacks by Iran-backed Houthi fighters on vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is sharpening a major strategic concern: whether this critical chokepoint could evolve into the next Strait of Hormuz.

The comparison is not straightforward. Geography — and Yemen’s deep internal divisions — make Bab el-Mandeb a very different challenge. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can menace shipping directly from its own shores. Around Bab el-Mandeb, Tehran’s influence runs mainly through the Houthis. Meanwhile, Yemen’s coastline is overseen by a patchwork of rival armed factions and political authorities, creating a security problem that the United States and its regional partners may struggle to address through naval force alone.

The threat came into sharp focus Tuesday when the Houthis attacked the Egyptian-owned cargo vessel Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb. Yemeni and Pakistani officials said four crew members — three Pakistanis and one Indonesian — were killed. Yemen’s Coast Guard said two Yemeni rescuers also died when the Houthis launched a second strike after emergency teams reached the scene. Reuters reported that, if verified, the deaths would mark the first fatalities from a Houthi attack on commercial shipping since the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb. 28.

Situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea with the Red Sea, which in turn connects to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean. The passage is one of the world’s most important routes for energy exports and commercial trade. Egypt’s Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline effectively anchor the northern end of the same Red Sea shipping corridor.

At its southern entrance, however, that corridor runs alongside a nation that has endured more than ten years of war.

The Houthis hold Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, along with much of the country’s north. Elsewhere, territory is controlled by the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government and a mix of allied and rival factions. In the south, the Southern Transitional Council, a separatist movement supported by the United Arab Emirates, remains a powerful player.

That fractured political and military landscape is now increasingly central to the question of who can secure the Bab el-Mandeb — and how.

Amr Al Bidh, the STC’s foreign affairs chief, told News Outlet that naval forces can defend individual vessels but cannot by themselves remove the threat posed by Houthi-controlled territory overlooking the maritime route.

“Naval presence protects individual ships. It does not take away Houthi launch sites, it does not interdict the smuggling routes that resupply them and it does not hold terrain,” Al Bidh said.

He said that “you have to be on the ground” to ultimately secure Bab el-Mandeb.

The deterioration comes amid a broader escalation in Yemen. U.N. Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council Thursday that the country faces its most serious threat of a return to large-scale war since the U.N.-brokered 2022 truce, warning that renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels risk drawing Yemen deeper into the wider regional confrontation.

That truce sharply reduced major fighting after years of war following the Houthis’ seizure of Sanaa in 2014 and the Saudi-led military intervention the following year. Though the formal truce expired in October 2022, large-scale hostilities remained comparatively limited for years.

On July 20, the Houthis declared what they called a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening vessels doing business with Saudi ports. Riyadh denies the Houthi accusation that Saudi Arabia has imposed a siege on Yemen.

A White House official, speaking on background, said the United States expects the Houthis to continue to uphold the terms of the ceasefire. The official said the Houthis “saw during Operation Rough Rider that the United States and President Trump will take necessary action to protect freedom of navigation and U.S. commercial shipping from Houthi terrorist attacks.”

The official added that the United States is focused on protecting core national security interests — including freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while “empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges.” The official said Washington is in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen government regarding regional stability.

United Against Nuclear Iran, citing Joint Maritime Information Center data, has put the decline in tanker transits since the July 20 blockade declaration at roughly 40%. UANI also said tankers have been observed broadcasting messages including “CHINESE OWNER” and “ARMED GUARD ON BOARD” through their tracking systems, apparently in an effort to reduce the chance of being targeted.

China, meanwhile, has been in contact with the Houthis over safe passage for Chinese vessels, according to a July 28 Reuters report citing Chinese and regional sources. Four China-bound tankers had crossed Bab el-Mandeb following the blockade announcement as Beijing sought assurances for its shipping.

The economic stakes are rising because of what is happening hundreds of miles to the east.

Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its Red Sea export infrastructure as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by the U.S.-Iran conflict.

That makes the Red Sea both an alternative to Hormuz — and a potential second pressure point.

Yemeni Nobel Peace Prize laureate Tawakkol Karman warned at the United Nations Thursday that Yemen’s internal collapse is increasingly threatening interests far beyond its borders.

“This is no longer a Yemeni crisis alone,” Karman said. “The continued collapse of the state in Yemen threatens international navigation and trade, energy security, and global supply chains and undermines regional and international peace and security.”

Karman had been invited by Denmark, which holds the Security Council presidency, to brief council members, but Denmark’s deputy U.N. ambassador said “strong opposition” prevented the briefing from taking place. Karman instead addressed reporters outside the chamber.

In a separate interview with News Outlet, Karman argued that restoring a functioning Yemeni state is ultimately essential to defeating armed groups and securing the country.

“Yemeni people can do that,” Karman said of defeating the Houthis and other militias. “We can be partners on saving the global and regional security.”

“Without restoring Yemen, that means there is not any sustainable peace,” she added.

But U.S. experts caution against treating Bab el-Mandeb as simply a second Hormuz.

“Iran doesn’t have the same direct influence on flows through the Bab al-Mandeb as it does for the Strait of Hormuz,” Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former National Security Council official, told News Outlet.

“The strategy would depend much more on proxies — Iraqi groups focusing fire on infrastructure and the Houthis focusing on the Red Sea,” Goldberg said.

But he said there are limits to that strategy. “The Houthis act much more independently than they used to, and have not yet shown an interest to going to war against the world — just against Riyadh,” Goldberg said.

He also pointed to one critical difference between the two waterways: ships that cannot safely cross Bab el-Mandeb can bypass the Red Sea entirely by sailing around Africa.

“Unlike Hormuz, shippers can go around the Red Sea if they really need to,” Goldberg said. “It adds cost and time but it’s not a single point of failure like Hormuz.”

The question facing U.S., Saudi Arabia and its partners is therefore how to prevent the Houthi threat from becoming more serious.

Riyadh is now trying to assemble two overlapping layers of regional security cooperation.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on Aug. 7, a mutual-defense pact that calls for high-level political and military coordination, joint exercises and deeper defense-industry cooperation. Turkey has stressed that the agreement is defensive and does not identify Iran or any other country as an enemy.

Dr. Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi foreign-policy researcher and senior non-resident fellow at Gulf International Forum, told News Outlet earlier this week that one immediate implication could be greater coordination against Iran-backed groups, particularly the Houthis.

Alghashian said the pact could produce a greater trilateral presence near the Saudi-Yemeni border, “especially in the maritime dimension,” while allowing Riyadh to take a firmer collective approach toward Iran-backed militias even as it maintains a more diplomatic approach toward Tehran itself.

Separately, Saudi Arabia is leading an effort specifically focused on the waterways.

The Saudi Defense Ministry announced July 30 plans for a multinational maritime-defense coalition intended to protect freedom of navigation and commercial and energy routes through Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Fourteen countries, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti, initially backed the initiative.

Turkey’s Defense Ministry confirmed Thursday that Ankara is participating in meetings in Jeddah aimed at establishing the coalition.

A State Department spokesperson separately told News Outlet that protecting commercial shipping through both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz remains a “top priority” for the Trump administration, pointing to freedom of navigation as one of Washington’s core national security interests in the Middle East. “We will continue to work with international partners to deter Iranian and Iranian-proxy attacks on merchant vessels, ensure the free flow of commerce and hold accountable those who threaten the safety of international shipping lanes,” a State Department spokesperson said.

The spokesperson said the administration is also seeking to disrupt the flow of Iranian money and weapons to the Houthis, noting that the U.S. has sanctioned more than 200 entities associated with the group.

“We condemn Iran’s flagrant violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and international law in threatening freedom of navigation and supporting their Houthi proxies,” the spokesperson said. The State Department also emphasized Washington’s support for Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s internationally recognized government as the threat around Bab el-Mandeb grows.

“The United States stands firmly with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government of Yemen against Houthi terrorism,” the spokesperson said. “We are in close consultation with our Saudi and Yemeni partners and remain committed to their security.”