KAMPALA – Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has held the reins of power for four decades.
At 81 years old, Museveni is set to be sworn in on Tuesday, beginning another five-year term which might be his final one. However, this doesn’t necessarily imply an end to the Museveni family’s influence in Ugandan politics.
His son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is the chief of the army and anticipated successor, has been actively involved in preparing for the inauguration. He supervised extensive rehearsals for the military parade, which will feature Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets soaring over the ceremonial venues in Kampala, the capital.
Many Ugandans are beginning to accept the notion that Museveni’s lengthy rule, which has shaped the lives of millions, is entering its twilight phase. The big question now revolves around how the transition will unfold and whether it will be smooth during his remaining time in office.
There are two potential paths to leadership.
Kainerugaba appears ready to step into his father’s shoes. He has openly expressed his ambition to follow in Museveni’s footsteps and recently asserted that this mission is unstoppable.
Still, his path is narrow and could follow one of two ways: either a bloodless but unconstitutional takeover by Kainerugaba or a constitutional amendment that allows lawmakers with the ruling party — who have an overwhelming majority — to pick him as Museveni’s successor. An electoral win is seen as a hurdle too high for Kainerugaba, whose challengers would include opposition leader Bobi Wine, the popular entertainer who has twice run for president and rejected the outcome of the January election that gave Museveni his next term.
Anita Among, the parliamentary speaker, said last month that legislators would do everything possible to assist Kainerugaba in his pursuit of the presidency.
“For the sake of MK, just assure MK that we will do whatever it takes,” Among told a group of lawmakers celebrating the general’s birthday, mentioning Kainerugaba’s initials. “In the 11th parliament, opposition got swallowed. In the 12th parliament, it is going to be walloped.”
In addition to the speaker, many other leaders have been scampering to show allegiance to Kainerugaba. While their moves display a quest for political survival, they also underscore Kainerugaba’s rise as Uganda’s de facto leader as his father ages and relies more on the army chief to exercise authority.
“Many Ugandans close to power have learned this lesson. That the president is old and exhausted, both intellectually and physically,” Andrew Mwenda, a close ally and friend of Kainerugaba, wrote last month in The Independent online newspaper. “He has a limited ability to monitor many things across a large spectrum of sectors.”
Kainerugaba, 52, joined the army in the late 1990s, and his rise to the top of the armed forces has been controversial, with critics dubbing it the “Muhoozi Project” to prepare him for the presidency.
Museveni and Kainerugaba often denied the existence of such a scheme, but it has become apparent in the last two years that hereditary rule is possibly what the president prefers.
Museveni, who has not said when he would retire, has no rivals within the ruling party – the reason many believe the military will have a say in choosing his successor.
“While people are waiting for the legal transition from Museveni, the de facto transition has already happened,” said Angelo Izama, an analyst who runs the Uganda-based Fanaka Kwawote think tank. “Kainerugaba, more than the president, is the final voice on defense and security matters.”
A more confrontational style than his father’s
Kainerugaba’s associates describe him as a dedicated military officer who often eschews ostentatious displays of wealth. He attended military schools in the U.S. and Britain before taking charge of a presidential guard unit that has since been expanded into an elite group of special forces.
In addition to his military duties, he is the founder of a political activist group known as the Patriotic League of Uganda. Its members and well-wishers range from government ministers to businesspeople.
But Kainerugaba lacks the public charisma and folksy style of Museveni, who has kept power in part by striking deals with his political rivals and even convincing some to serve in his government. Kainerugaba’s style is more confrontational, expressed often in harsh online posts that can give offense. He has ordered the arrest over alleged corruption of multiple generals, including some known to have once been his friends.
Museveni first took power by force in 1986 as the leader of a guerrilla force whose goal was to democratize Uganda after years of chaos and civil war. He said at the time that Africa’s problem was leaders who overstayed their welcome. Much later, he changed his stance to say his criticism was of leaders who prolonged their rule without an electoral mandate.
Museveni, a U.S. ally on regional security, is often credited with presiding over relative peace and stability. But many others see an increasingly authoritarian streak at odds with his early promise of democracy. Term and age limits have been scrapped and some rivals jailed or sidelined.
Lawmakers recently passed a punitive bill whose stated purpose is to deter foreign interference, but which drew widespread concern over its potential to hurt the work of non-governmental organizations and opposition groups.
The legislation forbids an “agent of a foreigner” from obtaining grants or other monetary support from external sources exceeding 400 million Ugandan shillings — roughly $110,000 today — within a 12-month period without the approval of the interior minister.
Wine’s party, the National Unity Platform, condemned the legislation as “unconstitutional, irrelevant and brought in bad faith to further persecute those with divergent views.”
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