As President Trump prepares to visit Beijing this week, his trip might be overshadowed by complex economic interactions between China and Iran, along with lingering trade tensions rooted in tariff disputes dating back to the early days of his presidency. Despite these challenges, Trump has consistently expressed admiration for Xi Jinping, acknowledging China’s leader as a formidable rival deserving of respect.
Known for his preference for shorter journeys and a strong inclination to stay close to his properties in Florida and New Jersey, Trump is anticipated to spend only a brief three days in China.
While the visit will be marked by ceremonial displays, the level of pageantry is unlikely to match the grandeur of Trump’s initial 2017 visit, which was branded by Beijing as a “state visit-plus.”
“Even before the current tensions with Iran, a repeat of the state visit-plus treatment was unlikely, given the strained atmosphere,” remarked Jonathan Czin, a former China policy director at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.
During Trump’s first-term visit, China welcomed him with great fanfare, including a red-carpet reception, military band performances, and children waving flags, enthusiastically chanting “Welcome.”
Xi Jinping personally guided Trump and First Lady Melania Trump on a tour of the historic Forbidden City, capping the visit with a private dinner there. Trump enjoyed a unique honor, being the first foreign leader since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 to dine in what was once the exclusive domain of emperors.
Xi offered a tour of the Forbidden City. Trump and first lady Melania Trump even had a private dinner there. Trump was the first foreign leader since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949 to experience what was once reserved for emperors.
The following morning brought another welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People and featured a military parade. There also was a state banquet in Trump’s honour with video highlights from the Chinese leader’s previous visit to Florida and a clip of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella singing in Chinese.
Beijing does not offer this level of spectacle to most visiting foreign leaders. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited the Forbidden City in January, Xi did not attend and the site remained open to the public. Starmer had to contend with tourists.
Ali Wyne, senior US-China research and advocacy adviser for the Washington non-profit the Crisis Group, said the “Chinese delegation will likely do its utmost to ensure that Trump leaves Beijing believing that he has just concluded the most extraordinary state visit of his two presidencies”.
But, he said, the “pomp and circumstance would serve a different role now than they did when he first visited Beijing” because “Xi has a much better understanding of Trump, and the administration’s own national security strategy and national defence strategy recognise China as a near-peer”.
Expectations for what gets accomplished could be lower this time, said Czin, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. He predicted that the Chinese may not offer major breakthroughs on trade or anything else because they are “working backward from our midterm elections” with the theory that the closer they get to election day “the more leverage they are going to have”.
The GOP is focused on retaining control of Congress, even as polling shows most Americans are unhappy with Trump’s economic policies and believe that the United States went too far in Iran. Still, the White House argues that Trump’s previous firm hand with Beijing on tariffs â which the Supreme Court subsequently struck down â means the US will remain in a strong position.
“President Trump cares about results, not symbols,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. “But even still, the president has a great relationship with President Xi, and the upcoming summit in Beijing will be both symbolically and substantively significant.”
Trump and Xi may see a lot of each other this year
Trump could meet with China’s leader four times in eight months.
After his visit to Beijing, Trump plans to host Xi at the White House. Trump might also attend the November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China. And Xi could come to the Group of 20 summit the following month at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida.
Czin noted that Xi also is not very fond of travel, meaning not all of the planned encounters may happen. He said China’s leader also does not “do personal connections” like the kind Trump relishes, noting Xi led a Chinese military purge in January that included replacing officials with long-standing personal ties to his family.
Wyne, though, said Xi also “appreciates that he is unlikely to deal with another US president who admires him as greatly and embraces as narrow a view of strategic competition”.
That means Xi may “attempt to pocket as many economic and security concessions from Trump as possible”, Wyne said.
Trump has long praised Xi
Trump told The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial board in 2024 that Xi “was actually a really good … I don’t want to say ‘friend.’ I don’t want to act foolish. ‘He was my friend’. But I got along with him great.”
Trump even suggested at the time that military force might not be required to ensure that Chinese troops do not encroach on Taiwan, simply because China’s leader “respects me”, despite Trump more recently discussing potentially selling arms to Taiwan.
Trump has continued to praise the bilateral relationship since returning to the White House, even after his Beijing visit, originally scheduled for March, was postponed due to the early stages of the Iran war.
He unsuccessfully prodded China to get involved in reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces choked it off and disrupted global economies. But China did use its leverage as the largest purchaser of Iranian oil to encourage Iran to agree to what has been a fragile ceasefire.
Beijing has strong economic ties to Tehran, and the war could hurt its economy, which was already projected to grow more slowly. If China can help establish lasting peace, though, that might boost its standing in negotiations on trade issues with the Trump administration.
Trade issues a sticking point
During his 2017 visit, Trump announced $US250 billion ($345 billion) in nonbinding trade deals, some of which never materialised. A round of trade deals announced in 2020 and worth $US200 billion ($276 billion) mostly never came to fruition before Trump’s first term ended.
More recently, Trump’s announcement last year of steep global tariffs prompted China to cut off purchases of US soybeans and clamp down on exports of rare earth minerals needed by American factories.
Tensions have eased somewhat since the US reached a trade truce last fall that has limited tariffs on both sides. The administration has continued to make reducing the US trade deficit with China a priority, insisting it can do so while still working to encourage trade between the two countries.
“I expect great stability in the relationship,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “But that doesn’t mean our trade deficit can’t continue dropping.”
Kelly, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home to our country”.
“Americans can expect the president to deliver more good deals for the United States while in China,” she said.
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