Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo has cautioned that a conflict in the Pacific could emerge as soon as next year if China were to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
Speaking to Sky News on Friday, Pezzullo said Australia must consider how it would respond if a regional war became a reality, saying the country needed to think about “how we’re going to put the war paint on.”
His remarks followed an address by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the National Press Club on Thursday, where Conroy defended the Albanese government’s defence agenda and outlined changes to procurement processes.
Pezzullo said he welcomed Conroy’s comments, particularly the minister’s emphasis on the strategic importance of Australia’s local defence industry and the need to build a “strong sovereign industrial base.”
“I am delighted that what I’m hearing… [Mr Conroy] say, is that Taiwan will be our Poland, we will put the war paint on, that’s what he’s saying,” Pezzullo said.
Although he stressed that war was not unavoidable and may not even be likely, Pezzullo said Australia could not afford to dismiss the possibility of a major confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.
“I think it’s not inevitable that there’s going to be a war in the Pacific, I don’t even think it is probable, but I think that it’s possible in either ’27, moving into ’28, into ’29,” he said.
“If that happens, and particularly if our principal ally is at war, we need to think about how we’re going to put the war paint on.”
Mike Pezzullo (pictured) said Australia must be prepared for war in the Pacific region
Pezzullo’s comments come amid ongoing debate about the risk of military conflict involving Taiwan and what it would mean for Australia and the US alliance.
US intelligence agencies said in March that China continues to pursue unification with Taiwan, but assessed that Beijing is not currently planning to invade the self-governed island in 2027.
‘The [intelligence community] assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,’ the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment said.
‘Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,’ reads the report.
China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049 – the 100 year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Beijing continues to claim Taiwan as part of its territory and regularly refers to the issue as the most sensitive aspect of its relationship with Washington.
Taiwan’s democratically elected government rejects China’s sovereignty claims.
In his National Press Club address on Thursday, Conroy argued that strengthening Australia’s domestic defence industry would boost the nation’s strategic influence and expand its role across the Pacific.
While stressing conflict is neither inevitable nor likely, Pezzullo argued Australia cannot ignore the chance of war breaking out in the Indo-Pacific (stock image)
China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049
He described Australia’s defence industrial capability as central to broader regional engagement and security.
‘A strong sovereign industrial base increases our influence in the world, including in the Pacific,’ he said.
Conroy also rejected suggestions Australia should scale back its engagement, saying Canberra remains the Pacific’s most trusted strategic ally and leading development partner.
‘Unlike others who have recently stood at this podium, I believe that Australia has a critical role to play in the Pacific as the region’s biggest development partner and its strategic partner of choice,’ he said.
He told the room Australia’s approach is anchored in consultation and delivering on Pacific priorities.
‘As I have said many times before: we turn up, we listen, and act on Pacific priorities,’ Conroy said.
‘It’s not our Pacific family. We’re part of the Pacific family.’
Conroy insisted that Australia’s relationship with its Pacific neighbours is critical not just to regional stability, but the nation’s security.
‘And our role as a member of the Pacific family is critical to regional prosperity and security, including Australia’s own security.’
