LABOUR’S promise to “smash the gangs” will not see Channel migrant numbers fall until at least next year.
Measures to disrupt the smuggling routes by targeting traffickers and boat suppliers are expected to take months to show any significant impact, according to law enforcement sources.
Ministers have been warned good weather this year is also contributing to a surge in crossings that are on course for a record year.
The number of “red days,” which are characterized by calm seas and favorable winds for crossing, has doubled in 2025 compared to the same period last year.
And intelligence monitoring of the Channel has indicated a rise in migrants from the Horn of Africa has seen riskier and larger crossings attempted.
Those smugglers are cramming more people into boats, which is also pushing up the numbers.
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on worst ever year since crossings began in 2017.
Government insiders are highly pessimistic about the prospect of reducing numbers this year.
Officials caution that policy adjustments and enhanced enforcement efforts may not visibly yield results until 2026, given the substantial number of migrants currently in France who are prepared to undertake the dangerous journey.
Last night Sir Keir Starmer met with European counterparts in Tirana, Albania to discuss continent wide efforts to clampdown on illegal migration.
He is also pushing France to do more to stop the boats from launching on their beaches or reaching British waters as part of his EU-reset plan.
No boats made it across on Wednesday and Thursday when the weather was choppy, according to Home Office data.
But 292 migrants arrived in five boats on Tuesday.
