New York is pouring more money into public education than any other state in the country, even as its classrooms continue to empty, with student enrollment down 12% compared with 15 years ago, according to a striking new report.
The Empire State could face another double-digit enrollment drop by 2031 as population growth slows and birth rates fall sharply. If that forecast holds, New York would be losing students at one of the fastest rates in the nation, behind only California and New Mexico, the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group, found.
That trend could leave state and local leaders with difficult and politically sensitive choices, the report warned, including whether to close or consolidate schools, trim staffing levels, or keep funding buildings and programs that serve far fewer children.
“Public school enrollment has declined in every region over the past decade, reflecting broader demographic trends and slower population growth,” the CBC wrote in its “Value Proposition Tracker” analysis.
The group noted that the enrollment slide has been especially sharp beyond the New York City metro area, putting fresh pressure on school districts as they try to align employees, facilities and academic offerings with a shrinking student population.
Across New York state, public school enrollment has fallen by 322,808 students, bringing the total to 2.38 million, the CBC analysis found.
New York City recorded the smallest percentage decline in the state, at 7.1%, a trend the report attributed in part to growth in charter school enrollment.
The city’s public school system now serves 930,272 students, down 188,864 from a decade earlier, when enrollment topped 1.1 million, according to the report.
But the city also has 109,463 more students in charter schools, which helped limit the rate of decline compared to school districts in the rest of the state.
Still, under-enrolled city public schools remain an issue.
More than 800 schools out of the roughly 1,800 in the system have fewer than 400 students, while 241 had fewer than 200 students enrolled, the report found.
The politicians have contributed to the problem by holding such schools “harmless” — maintaining their level of funding despite the districts having fewer students, critics said.
“Failing schools rob children of their futures,” said a recent report put out by the Success Academy charter school network. “Under-enrolled schools drain the budget for no return.
In other parts of the state, enrollment was in free fall:
- Down 20% in the Southern Tier
Despite the cratering enrollment, New York spends more per student than all other states with mediocre results.
The state spent nearly $32,000 per student in 2024, 81% more than the national average. It fished out 17% more than neighboring New Jersey, 21% more than Connecticut; 30% more than Massachusetts and 11% more than second-biggest spender Vermont.
“Despite spending more per student than other states, New York’s reading performance is near the national average, and its math performance is below,” the CBC analysis said. “Students in New Jersey and Massachusetts perform much better, despite those states spending 17 percent and 23 percent less per student, respectively.”
New York ranked 22nd in fourth grade reading and 24th in eighth grade reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress exam, considered the gold standard for testing.
Students in New York ranked 38th in fourth grade math and 27th in eighth grade math.
Massachusetts students ranked first in all categories on NAEP exams.
State law currently allows school districts to merge with each other with the approval of residents, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office noted.
The state also provides resources to assist with operating and building aid to school districts that have recently merged.
But Hochul, a Democrat seeking re-election to a second full four-year term this fall, treaded lightly on confronting smaller public school systems.
“Governor Hochul continues to make record investments in our schools because she believes every child in New York deserves access to a quality education, setting them up for lifelong success,” a Hochul spokesperson said in a statement.
“We will continue to work with school districts around the state to ensure they have the resources they need, while maintaining the Governor’s strong track record of fiscal discipline during her time in office.”
A representative for New York City Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels said “enrollment trends will be a focus” when asked about shrinking Big Apple schools.
“Our priority is ensuring that every student, regardless of the size of their school, has access to a high-quality education in a learning environment where they can thrive,” said city Department of Education spokesperson Chyann Tull.
“When schools are robustly enrolled, they are able to provide more rigorous academic opportunities to every classroom, more enriching extracurriculars to every student and a more wraparound supports to every child,” Tull said. “As New York City Public Schools charts a path forward for our school system, responding to national enrollment trends will be a focus.”
