THE BEST GAMES TO BET
JETS at JAGUARS
1 p.m., Jaguars favored by 11½, Over/Under 42
HANK’S HONEYS: The spread might seem surprising, but consider this: the Jets are struggling without a reliable quarterback, while the Jaguars are on a scoring spree. It’s hard to see where the Jets will generate their points. They’ll need to lean heavily on turnovers and special teams, which happens to be a strong suit for the Jaguars. Since trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets have allowed an average of 27.7 points per game. In contrast, the Jaguars have been on fire, averaging 30.3 points in their last six outings, and scoring at least 35 points in their last two home games. With Trevor Lawrence likely to have ample time in the pocket and Travis Etienne poised to perform well, the Jaguars are in a strong position.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Go with the Jaguars and the over.
COMMANDERS at GIANTS
1 p.m., Giants favored by 2½, Over/Under 46½
HANK’S HONEYS: This matchup isn’t exactly thrilling, with one team on an eight-game losing streak and the other on a seven-game skid. However, the Commanders appear to be in greater disarray. The Giants, benefiting from extra rest after their bye week, have shown more spark despite making costly mistakes. Washington has struggled on the road, with a 1-5 record against the spread, whereas the Giants have performed better on home turf. With Jayden Daniels out, Jaxson Dart is expected to have plenty of time to maneuver and connect with open receivers.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lean towards the Giants and the under.
RAIDERS at EAGLES
1 p.m., Eagles by 12 ½, 38 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Everyone has been waiting for the Eagles offense to explode and it’s starting to feel as though that’s not happening. It ranks near the bottom of the league in advanced metrics. Philly has just one double digit win all season (against the Giants) and has averaged just 14.9 ppg ever since. The Raiders present a great bounce back opportunity but their defense can be decent and their offense has been better since Chip Kelly was canned. Kenny Pickett might be an upgrade. It’s just too many points.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the under.
CHARGERS at CHIEFS
1 p.m., Chiefs by 4 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The question is do you want to bet against Patrick Mahomes with his playoff hopes on the line? Frankly, yes. The market keeps over-valuing the Chiefs as if it’s 2022. These Chiefs look worn down and Mahomes is getting dragged down in the mire, completing just over 63% of his passes. The Bolts, winners of five of their last six, are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games within the division and should be a two-point dog at best. Eight of the last nine meetings between the teams have been determined by the final drive.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
BROWNS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 7 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: We are not wild about this going past the key number of seven, certainly not with the tough sandwich spot the Bears find themselves in. They come off a heartbreaking loss to the Packers and now have to face a terrible non-conference opponent with the return match against Green Bay next week. The Browns can still play defense and in spite of the negative hype, Shedeur Sanders seems to be getting better each week. Soldier Field will be frigid so look for both teams to lean on their running game. That points to the under and the Browns keeping it relatively tight.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.
PANTHERS at SAINTS
4:25 p.m., Panthers by 2 ½, 39
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s too much to ask for the Saints to pull off a second straight upset, even if the Panthers lost to them at home last month in yet another instance of squandering chances to break out of the pack. They are the more talented team, coming off a bye after playing 13 straight weeks. The Saints shut down Bryce Young in the first meeting but Young has had seven TDs against a single INT ever since that game. We don’t see the Saints completing a season sweep.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.
PACKERS at BRONCOS
4:25 p.m., Packers by 2 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s not often that an 11-2 team riding a 10-game winning streak and tied for the best record in football catches points at home but he we are – and it’s justified. Most of the underlying numbers favor the Packers and there’s a big gap at QB, where Jordan Love has been playing at an elite level with Bo Nix yet to really impress in any of his starts. This is a good Broncos defense but both the lowly Browns and Raiders put up enough points to cover in their last two games. In fact, since Micah Parsons came over, the Green Bay D has been the better stop unit.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.
COLTS at SEAHAWKS
4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 12 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The one hesitation in taking the Seahawks to cover this huge number is that they sometimes take their foot off the gas and leave the back door open. The Rams are next in a showdown for the division and it will be easy to look past the Colts given their QB situation. However, the Colts still have Jonathan Taylor and an athletic O-line. While Seattle should stack the box and force whatever QB Indy throws out there to beat them, the Colts still have talent. They’ll be motivated by being such big underdogs.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.
VIKINGS at COWBOYS
8:20 p.m., Cowboys by 6 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: J.J. McCarthy finally had himself a game last week. But there is no way he is going win a shootout against Dak Prescott, now 30-13-2 SU in prime time and 32-15-1 after a loss. The Cowboys are back home, where their offense is electric. They have averaged just under 30 ppg over the last four weeks and will have some favorable matchups downfield. Prescott excels against the blitz and the Vikings blitz as much as any team. Throw out last week’s poor performance against the powerful Lions offense. The Dallas D is improved.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the over.
DOLPHINS at STEELERS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Steelers by 3 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Why is there so much public cash coming in on the Steelers? Their win over the Ravens was less impressive when you look at the total yardage. The Ravens were the better team everywhere but in the red zone. The Dolphins are not the same team that began the season so listlessly. They have the better defense so we don’t see Aaron Rodgers following up on last week’s impressive performance and they’re getting good news on De’Von Achane, who left last week’s game with a rib injury. He should see plenty of daylight against Pittsburgh’s rubbery run D. The hook looks very tempting.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BILLS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Bills by 1 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It is going to be extremely hard to beat Josh Allen twice in the same season. He has been in these big games before, unlike Drake Maye. He’s the kind of QB who can will a team to victory. However, the Patriots have been a nemesis. The Bills are 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last five clashes with New England, including a 23-20 loss at home, which touched off the Pats’ 10-game winning streak. Buffalo has been ridiculously inconsistent all season and has already lost three times as a road favorite. TreVeyon Henderson could exploit a Buffalo run D allowing 135.2 ypg.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Patriots and the over.
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BEST OF THE REST
CARDINALS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Texans by 9 ½, 42
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.
RAVENS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Ravens by 2 ½, 51
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
LIONS at RAMS
4:25 p.m., Rams by 5 ½, 52
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
TITANS at 49ERS
4:25 p.m., 49ers by 12 ½, 43 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Niners and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Packers. As the great Pele once said, “Love, Love, Love.”
LAST WEEK: 3-11; OVER/UNDER: 10-3-1
OVERALL: 97-108-2; OVER/UNDER: 118-83-3
BEST BETS: 9-5
