California voters appear inclined to support a proposed billionaire tax headed for the November ballot, a new poll shows. Yet the measure faces a significant obstacle: voters also back two competing initiatives designed to cancel key provisions of the controversial tax, which has already prompted some wealthy residents to consider moving their businesses elsewhere.
According to a Public Policy Institute of California survey of 1,103 voters on 14 November measures, 52% of likely voters support Proposition 40. The proposal would impose a one-time tax of 5% on the total wealth of California billionaires. Forty-six percent oppose it, while 2% remain undecided.
However, nearly as many voters support two so-called “poison pill” measures that could override major elements of Proposition 40 if they receive more votes, the poll found.
Propositions 41 and 42 were financed by Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who has spent more than $100 million on several initiatives involving taxation, government reform and development regulations. The campaigns also seek to derail the billionaire tax.
Proposition 42 leads in the survey, with 54% of respondents supporting it. The measure would bar new taxes on personal property other than real estate, including retirement accounts, intellectual property and financial assets. If it wins more votes than Proposition 40, the billionaire tax would be blocked from taking effect.
Proposition 41 holds a slimmer advantage, with 51% support. It would require additional audits of newly taxpayer-funded programs and contains its own provision preventing the billionaire tax from being implemented.
“The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s statewide survey director, told the Mercury News. “Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot.”
PPIC conducted the survey from Sept. 4 through Sept. 10. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, the leading sponsor of the billionaire tax, says the revenue is needed to offset federal funding reductions affecting healthcare and education. Opponents, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and business groups, warn that the measure could hurt California’s economy. One analysis projects that billionaire relocations could eventually cost the state 100,000 jobs and billions of dollars in tax revenue.
Dave Regan, leader of SEIU-UHW, has characterized the proposal as part of a broader national effort to increase taxes on the ultra-wealthy.
“I think this is now a national campaign,” Regan told Politico in August. “We knew this was provocative, we knew it would touch a nerve, but we completely underestimated how much interest and attention it would generate.”
Brin’s political organization, Building a Better California, has also donated to Proposition 45, which would impose limits on building reviews conducted under the California Environmental Quality Act.
