With limited polling available before Tuesday’s closely watched contested congressional primaries in New York, prediction-market traders on Polymarket are zeroing in on four races — three of them featuring candidates endorsed by socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat is currently given a 57% chance of securing another term on the betting platform, while Mamdani-supported Democratic socialist challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier is listed at 45% in the 13th Congressional District, which includes northern Manhattan and sections of The Bronx.
In another closely watched contest, Mamdani-backed Democratic Assemblywoman Claire Valdez is heavily favored, with Polymarket placing her odds at 83%, compared with 18% for Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the race to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez in the Brooklyn-Queens 7th District.
Former city Comptroller and mayoral contender Brad Lander is seen as an overwhelming favorite in the city’s affluent 10th Congressional District, which spans parts of brownstone Brooklyn and lower Manhattan. Polymarket gives Lander a 99% chance of victory, while two-term incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman is listed at just 1%.
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Lander, too, has received Mamdani’s endorsement.
In Manhattan’s 12th District, which takes in the Upper East Side and Upper West Side, bettors are leaning toward Assemblyman Micah Lasher, assigning him a 59% chance of succeeding retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.
Assemblyman Alex Bores follows with a 43% chance of winning, according to Polymarket, while Jack Schlossberg — grandson of former President John F. Kennedy — is far behind at just 1%.
Although Polymarket users appear most interested in those four major congressional primaries, several other House races are also drawing attention, including:
- The bruising Republican primary to replace retiring upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik in CD 21. President Trump-backed Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino is running against Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who is the candidate of the New York Republican establishment and the state Conservative Party. Stefanik has not endorsed a successor.
- In House District 3 covering parts of Nassau and Queens, Republican lawyer Greg Hach is primarying Assemblyman Michael Lipetri for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi. Lipetri lost by only 3 points to Suozzi in 2024 and has the backing of President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and the Nassau County GOP. Rudy Giuliani endorsed Hach, in a rare split with his pal Trump.
