According to a newly released study, President Trump’s immigration policies are projected to shrink the U.S. workforce by 15 million over the next decade. The findings, published on Friday by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), suggest that both legal and illegal immigration policies under the Trump administration could significantly impact the labor market and economic growth.
The NFAP analysis indicates that current immigration enforcement measures could lead to a reduction of 6.8 million workers by 2028, escalating to 15.7 million by 2035. This decrease in the workforce is expected to lower the country’s annual economic growth rate by nearly one-third, potentially detracting from U.S. living standards, according to the study.
The study further projects that these immigration policies could increase the federal debt by $1.74 trillion and slash the gross domestic product (GDP) by $12.1 trillion over the next decade. These financial impacts underscore the broader economic consequences of the administration’s deportation efforts and immigration restrictions.
Among the changes, the research highlights reductions in legal immigration, including cuts to refugee admissions, the 2025 travel ban, and the termination of Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole programs. Other measures, such as restrictions on international students working after their studies and anticipated rules affecting legal immigration, are also expected to play a role.
Furthermore, the report cautions that the potential economic fallout from limiting U.S. companies’ access to high-skilled foreign workers through regulatory changes could further hamper productivity growth, although these factors were not included in the current analysis.
The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment regarding these findings.
The Trump administration has set a goal of removing at least 1 million immigrants in the country illegally per year. The Labor Department recently warned that the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts could drive up food prices due to a dwindling workforce in the agriculture industry.
Taxpayer funds are currently being used to bolster border and immigration enforcement, including the White House’s $45 billion investment to increase Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capacity.
The NFAP said as expenditures rise, so will the country’s debt.
“Increasing the federal debt will reduce living standards in the United States by leading to higher levels of taxation, inflation and interest rates than without such debt,” researchers wrote.
“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations. With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” they added.
