A-level students are expected to mark a historic results day, with a new report forecasting the strongest exam grades on record outside the pandemic years.
Analysis by the University of Buckingham indicates that nearly three in ten A-level entries will be awarded at least an A grade, while close to one in ten is predicted to achieve the top A* mark.
The study also suggests boys are set to widen their advantage over girls in the highest grades, extending a pattern that first emerged last year.
Hundreds of thousands of sixth-form students across the country will receive their results on Thursday, when many will also learn whether they have secured a place at university.
The forecast, produced by Buckingham’s Centre for Education and Employment Research, says the rise in top grades may amount to less than half a percentage point, but even a small increase would represent thousands of additional high-scoring entries.
If confirmed, it would mean top A-level grades have climbed for a third consecutive year. However, the report argues that the increase should not be interpreted as artificial grade inflation.
Instead, researchers point to the growing popularity of mathematics, a subject that typically delivers a higher proportion of A and A* grades than many other A-level courses.
Report author Professor Alan Smithers said: ‘The good news for those anxiously awaiting the 2026 results is that more top grades are likely to be awarded than in any year ever, outside those sent through the roof by teacher assessment during Covid.
Pupils are due to celebrate their best A-level results ever with top grades at a record high outside of the Covid years, a report predicts (pictured: pupils collecting their results last year)
New analysis from the University of Buckingham suggests almost three in ten entries will get at least an A, with almost one in ten getting an A* (pictured: pupils last year)
‘We cannot be sure, but it is my best guess… It could be that post-pandemic we are seeing the emergence of a new upward trend.’
However, he added: ‘This will be down to changes in the entry mix, not grade inflation.’
Last year, 28.3% of entries scored at least an A grade, and 9.4 per cent scored an A*.
This was the highest on record outside of the Pandemic years of 2020-2022, when grades were artificially inflated due to exams being cancelled and teachers deciding marks.
The report pointed out maths is now by far the most popular subject, following steady rises in entries including a 3.9 per cent increase this year.
Meanwhile, entries for further maths have increased by 8.6 per cent this year.
The report said: ‘Maths emerged as the main driver of overall outcomes in 2025, since it had by far the largest entry and was among the highest awarders of top grades. Along with further maths, it accounted for nearly a quarter of the A* grades awarded.’
He added that maths always produces a larger number of top grades than arts and humanities because ‘it is clear whether answers are correct or not, so markers can be confident in using the whole range of marks from zero to 100 per cent.’
And he said the reason for the rise in maths was likely due to better ‘job prospects’, which is ‘not surprising considering the difficulties young people are encountering.’
Last year, the proportion of boys’ entries awarded A or A* was 28.4 per cent, 0.2 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for girls’ entries – 28.2 per cent.
He said this was also likely due to the growth of high-scoring maths, which is taken by more boys than girls.
Professor Smithers’ wide-ranging report also pointed out that Northern Ireland is likely to continue to outperform the rest of the UK – a trend lasting at least 25 years.
Last year, the country was 8 percentage points ahead of England at A* to C grades – which he said could be down to it keeping the grammar school system. In contrast, England only has 163 such schools left.
He said: ‘Northern Ireland’s success could be an inconvenient truth. It retains grammar schools and academic selection at age 11.
‘This is off the political agenda in the rest of the UK, so Northern Ireland’s performance is not celebrated as much beyond its boundaries as it should be. The opportunity of studying and learning from the results is being lost.’
A Department for Education spokesman said: ‘Ahead of results day, young people and parents can be confident that their exam grades will be a true reflection of their abilities. This report is entirely speculative, as relevant data has not yet been released.
‘Whatever young people want to do after they get their results, they should be proud of their efforts throughout their studies, and take the time to consider the full range of options available to them.’
